Yes, strange to say I'm cheering on Vlad, not Yevgeny in this one.

Whatever happens there will be a sad outcome.

This is not going to make Russia a better place.

Is it over?

Some body is going to have to be very careful about whom makes their tea.

Bungalow sales in Belarus increase ..

Well, that was weird.

The Wagner group is a very odd and quite disturbing entity, I can't see how Putin thought he could keep them on a leash.  I think since the mass recruitment of some of Russia's worst convicts it's now the biggest private army in the world?  And they're still recruiting active Russian soldiers serving alongside them on the front lines, reducing an already demoralised and depleted 'official' Russian force with the promise of better conditions and pay. 

The writing was on the wall a couple of months back when Prigozhin started being critical of their supply lines and some of the defence officials, although I'm still surprised he took this step so openly.  But he's in an incredibly powerful position now as without his troops the Russians could never hold the occupied territory.  And he's got a much more accurate perspective on this 'special military operation' so won't just throw men at the problem like Putin would/has. 

Could we see him bring Putin down by making a deal with some of the more extreme government officials?  Remove Putin, install a new dictator and prop him up with a private army.  We've seen today how the Russian army have backed away from any engagement with the Wagner fighters while they were heading towards Moscow.  So would they have the strength/will to stand in their way, especially after so many have been lost to Putin's failed invasion?

I think Prigozhin has shot his bolt.
There's a lot of media spin on this but I would think he expected someone in the FSB to act in Moscow as he advanced. When it didn't happen (and attack helicopters took out several vehicles in the convoy) he took the negotiated deal with Lukashenko.
What happens next?
I see foreign travel ahead. Take care opening doors and taking tea with old friends.

 

Apparently he's now been 'exiled' to Belarus so who knows what happens next.  I doubt Putin can take him out as it'll cost him the Wagner support and he'll won't be able to hold the front lines without them.  So does he leave it 'pending' for a few years and knock him off once the Ukraine conflict has been decided. 

Quote from: Gwydion on 25 June 2023, 12:44:23 AMThere's a lot of media spin on this but I would think he expected someone in the FSB to act in Moscow as he advanced. When it didn't happen (and attack helicopters took out several vehicles in the convoy) he took the negotiated deal with Lukashenko.

That's a good theory and would make sense, rattle the cage and prompt some action within the Kremlin.  Maybe he'd already had some conversations but the other parties weren't able to get the job done before he arrived in Moscow.  I'm sure I read that Putin only has proper contact with about 3 people these days, so it's going to be incredibly hard to get to him.  It'd probably be easier to just lock him in his quarters and conduct the coup without him!

Quote from: Leon on 25 June 2023, 11:17:32 PMApparently he's now been 'exiled' to Belarus so who knows what happens next. 

Who knows what happens next is a pretty good summary of the situation    I wonder how many in the western intelligence community saw this coming?  What I couldn't understand was how Prigozhin was able to bad mouth the regime and get away with it when others who put so much as a critical post on Twitface ended up in prison for eight years and more, or if they were really unlucky fell out of a window or were poisoned.  I constructed a number of competing hypotheses. 
Hypothesis 1.  It is all designed to disinform and confuse the Unkrainians and the West. 
Hypothesis 2.  Putin couldn't act against Prigozhin as Wagner is the only effective Russian military organisation.
Hypothesis 3.  Putin is in on it and plans to act against the MoD and Army command with Wagner support.
Hypothesis 4.  The hypothesis I hadn't thought of.
Hypothesis 5.  Another one I hadn't thought of.
Then there is this mutiny, take-over of Rostov and the Army HQ, with no apparent resistance, and a march on Moscow by Wagner that ends abruptly but with next to no interference from the Russian army, and Prigozhin is allowed to go into exile in Belorus after an agreement is brokered by Lukashenko.
I just don't get it.  Putin has a 100% record of not letting opponents get away with it and his rhetoric about treason and dire punishments prior to the agreement were pretty typical   Did Putin have no confidence in the Russian army's ability, or willingness, to stop Prigozhin?  If that is the case Prigozhin seems not to have shared Putin's view, otherwise why give up?  Furthermore, what leverage/influence did Lukashenko have?  He's just a grubby dictator and Putin puppet.  As for exile in Belarus, that hardly puts him beyond Putin's reach.  I'd want to be a lot further away than that if I were Prigozhin – Salisbury at least.  Is there is something going on here that I just don't see?  The problem is that if Putin is replaced it could be by somebody even worse.
So,
Hypothesis 6.   Who knows what happens next.

An interesting point in the paper yesterday was that no recent Russian leader has survived more than a few months after a failed coup, as it weakens their position so much.

QuoteWho knows what happens next

Furthermore, what leverage/influence did Lukashenko have?  He's just a grubby dictator and Putin puppet. 

Totally agree hypothesis 6.

I think you underestimate Lukashenko though.  He pre-dates Putin.  Sadly (since he is clearly a bad man) I think Lukashenko has proven to be an absolute master at fence sitting during the last two years and stretching out his/Belarus's own interests given he has a very weak position to resist kremlin pressure. I'd cite in  particular that open leak of the invasion plans early on last year.  Impossible to believe he didn't order someone to take pics of his presentation.  And now he has paid back the favour for Putin supporting him against the Belarus revolution and will feel stronger to resist the Oligarchs grab our assets Russia-Belarus integration plan.  Hopefully the CIA are holding their noses and talking with Lukashenko .

On which topic, why on earth is a fraction of the $$$ aid to Ukraine not used to pay Wagner mercenaries to switch sides?

Disinformatsya? Possible but a bit Byzantine even for the Russians. A lot of working parts to go wrong, and to what end?
Agree Putin wouldn't want to use forces to fight Wagner troops if possible with a war in Donbas ongoing. How effective Wagner is after the head on attacks around Bakhmut is moot.
I don't think Putin has problems getting rid of his senior military that would require a faked coup attempt.
? Prighozin thought he had a deal with people in the FSB or FSO (Presidential protection service) but for whatever reason they either failed or failed to act.
? Prighozhin did a deal with a western intelligence service (and the financial scale required suggests it would have to be CIA) perhaps in connection with above possibility, which failed.
?As above but Prigozhin decided he couldn't trust what would happen next and split the cash with Vlad for protection.
The latter two are almost as Byzantine as the Disniformatsiya idea, but with the added tease of a recently (20 June) announcement of a doubling of the noted (18 May) accounting error in the value of arms sent to Ukraine by the USA. It now stands at $6.2 billion vice $3 billion overestimate. You can lose a lot of bribes, even at Prigozhin's level, in that figure. Especially if you think Prigozhin wouldn't survive the infighting in the Kremlin after the coup and you stand a good chance of getting the money back.

Of course Putin has sometimes taken years to complete his destruction of enemies he has sidelined so Prigozhin is probably not safe yet.

As for survivors of failed coups - Gorbachev, 32 years ago is the only one I can think of who was ousted in short time - very different circumstances. Khrushchev defeated the AntiParty coup attempt but he lasted another seven years so I don't think that counts. And not exactly 'recent'.

QuoteWho knows what happens next is a pretty good summary of the situation

Hypothesis 5.  Another one I hadn't thought of.

Reposition Wagner troops in Belarus to start a new front against Ukraine?  I thought the annexation of the frontier republics was evidently to enable the fiction that conscripts were defending Russian territory.  No need to go with the fiction that Wagner is not under Russian control but it would be a counter-play to the Free Russia units now raiding towards Belgorod that Ukraine state they have nothing to do with.

Although he had frequently critised the head of defence ministry, and the head of the army, he never critised Putin, so perhaps he hadn't expected Putin to be quite so supportive of the generals.

Another point I've seen made was that perhaps he expected some sort of support from other generals, which he didn't receive.

A hot dog seller who became a restaurant owner who became Putin's personal chef, who became a mercenary leader...

To quote Sesame Street,  one of these things is not like the others.