Crimea

Started by fsn, 01 March 2014, 03:20:35 PM

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get2grips

Quote from: OldenBUA on 04 March 2014, 09:24:52 AM
I sincerely hope everything will have a good ending. Yes, it's Realpolitik. And Putin always plays his game very well. So probably the Crimea will be lost to Ukraine. And then? Eastern part as well? The whole country? Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania maybe? Belarus, ofcourse, maybe some kind of Anschluss.

I worked with an Estonian; she despised the Russians.

Her words: "there jets still fly over; they say "we are still here!""

In the smaller Eastern European countries, they still fear a return to "the old ways."

However this plays out, it's very sad and their will be no winners :(

Techno

Quote from: get2grips on 04 March 2014, 10:16:41 AM
However this plays out, it's very sad and their will be no winners :(

Sad, but true Gareth. :(
Cheers - Phil

OldenBUA

Quote from: get2grips on 04 March 2014, 10:16:41 AM
I worked with an Estonian; she despised the Russians.
Which comes as no surprise. Maybe some people have not noticed that the Russians have done a lot of things to antagonize their 'own backyard' in the previous decades (and before).
Water is indeed the essential ingredient of life, because without water you can't make coffee!

Aander lu bin óók lu.

sebigboss79

Quote from: OldenBUA on 04 March 2014, 09:24:52 AM
I have kept quiet so far. And I don't want to get into any political discussion. This forum is not the right place for it, and as we all know politics are best left outside.

BUT

This crisis is fuelled by one thing only; Russian mentality. They still live in a bygone age, while the world around them has changed. A lot. If you know what kind of claptrap the Russian media pour out every day to their own people, you know what I am talking about. While in Ukraine, things have changed (VERY much to the chagrin of the Russians). I'm mainly thinking of the Orange revolution here, rather than the more recent one.

Things in Russia will not change, unless the Russian people wake up, like they did in Ukraine. Sadly, that will not happen. Not with the kind of control over the media that Putin has. Not with the total lack of basic democratic rights. Not with the current Russian mentality. So Russia can continue to bully all it's neighbours, and the West will look on, and waffle and sputter and so on. But will do nothing. And where will it stop?

I sincerely hope everything will have a good ending. Yes, it's Realpolitik. And Putin always plays his game very well. So probably the Crimea will be lost to Ukraine. And then? Eastern part as well? The whole country? Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania maybe? Belarus, ofcourse, maybe some kind of Anschluss. Some of the Stan's next? Maybe Finland? Might as well ring up Merkel, and see if an agreement can be made about Poland. Back to the good old days.

I hate to object but the real crisis started when Steinmeier went to Kiew and together with the Polish SecState imposed a regime change WITHOUT consulting the Russians. I guess everybody would be pXssed off at that.

If you are dealing with a madman then you do not aggrevate him. But I keep saying Putin's actions are absolutely rational. And moreover according to contractual agreements he can have 25,000 troops, over 100 ships and and and in the Crimean without technically violating anything. It is rather naive to believe Putin would give up the Black Sea fleet where it is. It is Russias ONLY asset against aggression from the South. Whether this kind of thinking is cold war mentality or not, the Russians still have a fallout shelter for every person in Moscow whereas "the West" has filthy rich individuals and the bottom parts of society must rely on foodbanks.

A bit more reality shock in the west would certainly be beneficial. No Russian action in Crimea is not "nice" but telling the Ukrainian soldiers to surrender and "get lost" is better than some Ukrainian hothead starting a shooting war. Putin said he does not like Nato at his borders. Nato goes on his borders. Putin says he does not agree with the Missile Defence system (at his border), the US places the systems there. Now how long do you think Putin is letting "the West" do what THEY want before he does what HE wants?

So contenance si vous plait and carefully think if our politicians really have acted in OUR best interest.

Ace of Spades

The big difference I feel is that Putin does what he wants on other peoples property... He can place all the missile systems he wants in countries that want them, he can close mutual defence deals with all the countries that want to close the deal freely. Of course the West didn't ask Putin if he would agree with a regime change; it is not really his bussiness though he certainly will have an opinion about it (and one that is probably not in agreement with what the people in the country it concerns want). The thing is, in my opinion, should we really do what somebody like Putin wants just because he will threaten or bully you? If you are dealing with a madman it is certainly not wise to aggravate him but call the police and make sure he gets off the street so he doesn't threaten any body else...

In the end Putin certainly will have seen trouble coming his way but the fact is that no Russians were molested because of their ethnic background, no Russian soldiers have been disarmed, no Russian ships have been banned from the port of Sevastopol and neither were the Russians told to start packing. If anybody then Putin should have been the first one to contact the Ukranian government, the EU or even NATO to share his concerns and I'm certain he would have been given a very fair deal. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be interested in a fair deal; he wants it all and he wants it now. At least he's making everybody believe that he will take what he wants when he wants it and we now have to be gratefull that he doesn't do so immediately. Seems a bit like the other way round to me.

Even so; I am indeed happy that our politicians are calling for common sense to prevail but as I stated before (without wanting to propagate a new arms race!) this is a very serious wake up call for the West; lets not stay in bed too long now...
(please, if anybody feels that this is getting too personal let me know and I will stop this thread immediately, it's just something I'm interested in and like to share views on with other people; not nescessarily those that are in line with mine... ;))

Cheers,
Rob
2014 Painting Competition - Runner-Up!

sebigboss79

In principal you are correct but it is also not "the West's" business to change a regime.

Especially when said regime immediately attempts to nullify the contract that allows Russian presence AND forbids Russian as an official language (which before that was equal with Ukrainian).

The real escalationists I am afraid are found in the West and Putin has not invaded any country when Nato acted against his warnings before. Maybe this is just the step that was too much? Would you be happy with a Russian forward deployment base in your back yard? I certainly would object to such.

Ace of Spades

You certainly have a point, but if I'm not mistaken the protests in Kiev mainly originated from the public looking for closer ties to the EU and trying to convince the president to move that way rather then looking towards Russia. I actually believe that the offer of the EU was on the table quite a while ago and that it just came to a point when the Ukraine president had to decide whether to sign it or not. He then got 'bribed' by Putin to ignore the EU offer and with that the opinion of (what I believe to be) a substantial part of the Ukranian people. We didn't hear too much from Putin then. Why? I think it is because Janukovich promised him he would keep the rabble at bay and Russia wouldn't have to worry about a thing. Then the sh*t hit the fan and Janukovich got scared (rightfully so!) and ran off. Putin now found himself up the creek without his, quite expensively bought,  paddle...
Since the people (on Maidan at least) didn't seem to be interested in anything pro-Russian it was of course no surprise that in the heat of the moment feelings weren't too friendly towards Russia (although I don't believe towards the Russians within the Ukraine).
Putin now had just one card left up his sleeve and that is the one he played through handing out Russian passports, making excellent use of his propaganda machine by spreading fear and finally the use of brute force.
I believe the Ukraine government would certainly have been interested in talks because they know they have nothing to gain in the long term by turning their back on Russia. If only Putin would have avoided this powerplay and had a cup of coffee with them. Instead he choose the other way. Indeed; he may do this to make his point towards the West and in Russian culture this may be the way to get respect; most of the rest of the world sees things differently...
I believe NATO was as much surprised by the sudden change of power in the Ukraine as Russia was; they both just reacted different.
And indeed; I would not be very comfortable with a Russian forward deployment base in my back yard but if on the other hand my neighbour would voluntarily grant it to them I wouldn't really think of getting into his garden and tell him not too. I would on ther hand strengthen my fence!  :D

Best regards,
Rob
2014 Painting Competition - Runner-Up!

sebigboss79

04 March 2014, 08:07:58 PM #27 Last Edit: 04 March 2014, 08:11:51 PM by sebigboss79
In short the EU paper was in place and revoked by the government Yanukovich that had been voted into power by the people.

Such is democracy.

The point stands where the EU then imposed (whether using the Maidan demonstrators or being abused by them after the agreement is irrelevant) rather than negotiated WITH the Russians. They chose to go behind Putin's back (yet again) and concering the Nato and EU membership of former Soviet states the concerns of the Kremlin should be taken into account. This is exactly what repeatedly had NOT been done.

Let us stay with our neighbourhood example where your neighbour has such a base and all of a sudden telle Ivan to f.. off. While you are Ivan's enemy and having such a strong fence Ivan can either pack his bags OR defend his "right" to the base (which the Maidan government immediately revoked - against the law) and use his superior force to deny your neighbour access to the back yard.

It is absolutely understood that putting troops in the base WITHOUT occupation of the whole Crimean would have been wiser but looking at history it is clear while Putin defends his bases not at their gates but further north. While accepting such measures is beyond question I also see the whole problem (bases, enemy at the gates AND pro-Russian majority of population).

Bribes from Putin must have been larger than those from the EU I guess.

I am sure we are agreed that Putin now plays this very very cool. He has put his cards on the table: Crimean is ours.
The Western powers have already stated they are not going to war over it.


So why the bloody fuss? This was and is a matter between the Kremlin AND whatever legitimate government of Ukraine. And Putin has said while that is de-jure Yanukovich he will not negotiate with people that have no political future. Heck he even suggested free elections in December. THEN the status of the Crimean base can be negotiated - something the hothead interim government attempted to undermine by declaring the Budapest accords void.

In summary it is easy to point at Putin but if you look behind the story you can see he has been fobbed off by the EU and the Americans a few times too often. He has been ignored while these events unfolded in a neighbouring country. Moreover he has yet again been fobbed off by bringing a future Nato member close to EU with "American 1st tank Division at the border ready to roll" (this is how they see it unfortunately).

Furthermore the list of countries Russia unlawfully invaded is much shorter than the equivalent list for the US. - I come to think we call the wrong people our friends!

Last Hussar

The mistake was Yanukovich started shooting protesters.  Up to that point it was 'This is who you voted for'.  Once the police fired, then its hard for a president NOT to get condemnation.

The wider problem is that these are fledgling democracies.  The populance thinks 'We ousted the last guy, ergo, we can do the same to anyone who pisses us off'.  See Egypt for details.
I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain why you are wrong.

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little."
Franklin D. Roosevelt

GNU PTerry

Leman

I think a lot of destabilisation occurred in Europe when US President Wilson insisted on self-determination at the end of WWI. Now the US is crying over a majority Russian population in the Crimea saying they want to be part of Russia. Thanks Wilson.
The artist formerly known as Dour Puritan!

Last Hussar

Stalin moved them in
I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain why you are wrong.

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little."
Franklin D. Roosevelt

GNU PTerry

Alan

Hello Comrades.

Just as an aside with all these wise words, have any of you guys lived in the Soviet Union? Or Russia? Just out of interest? Or Ukraine? I have. Or I thought I had. It doesn't seem to match the experiences our merry group has of these people. I have a Russian living with me. Despite my best efforts, she is still in the house. And she has annexed the TV. You are right! They are all evil and can't wait to take over everything. Thank goodness we will get more purely defensive rockets (even if we don't want them) all over the place to save us from these terrible people.

Whilst Mr. Putin isn't perfect for us, for Russians by and large, he is the best they have. They tried democracy and got Yeltsin and McDonalds... Ukraine is their best friend. Now, somehow (not that I am suggesting for a minute they were helped by the UK, EU and the USA, who absolutely have no history whatsoever of destabilising democratic countries like ooooh Chile for example) the mish mash of far and centre right opponents have come together and overthrown a democratically elected government. Why? Because some people didn't like the fact that the country was going to join COMECON, but without the COM. Now, Ukraine is being run by an interesting bunch of people. They are lovely. Hello Svoboda! And not corrupt at all.

So what should the Russian govt actually do? The letter and spirit of the Budapest Memorandum was violated by all signature parties really leading upto this sorry situation. If democratic electoral processes are out the window, which clearly they seem to be, then why shouldn't the people of Crimea and eastern Ukraine decide to be independent, or join Russia. The way to get things done there now as supported by the EU and the USA is to throw the toys out of the pram, so if its good enough for one side its good enough for the other?

Right, I am now going to go and wake the kids up (Russian passport holders) and beat them with a stick until they start crying and make them write out a 1000 times "Russians go home". Not in Latin though. We would be in a right mess then... "Russia to their homes go"?

Last Hussar

Yeah and think of all those ethnic Russians in Latvia, Lithuania and the other old socialist republics who could need protecting at any moment.

Thank God for all those oligarchs who became billionaires by managing to buy state industries.
I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain why you are wrong.

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little."
Franklin D. Roosevelt

GNU PTerry

OldenBUA

Hello Alan. Again, not really the place for political discussion. No, I've not been to Russia. But my wife is Ukrainian (my brother-in-law has been called up as a reservist). So, yes, I have been to Ukraine, though my longest stay was three weeks or so. Ofcourse, Russians are people, just like everybody else. If they want Putin, they want Putin. And I know a lot of them want Putin, and for many reasons. I just happen to think some of these are the wrong reasons, and I would wish for them that they had a bit more of a say about it as well. But sadly, they don't, as you should well know.

Funny you should mention corruption. Many of the protesters on Maydan weren't there because they wanted closer ties with the West. An end to all the corruption was/is much more important. It's one of the reasons the opposition parties could never get their full support, they wanted the whole bunch to get lost, and start anew. Not that it will happen, but they tried. Not really possible in Russia, is it?
Water is indeed the essential ingredient of life, because without water you can't make coffee!

Aander lu bin óók lu.

sebigboss79

Quote from: OldenBUA on 06 March 2014, 08:05:23 PM
Not really possible in Russia, is it?

Not really possible in Imperial England, not really possible in Imperial or fascist Germany....the list goes on.

"Occasionally the tree of liberty needs watering witht he blood of tyrants and patriots" - but Jefferson did NOT talk about "foreigners who know better than you do".

What concerns me is humnanities inability to leave each other alone, much less not go on each others nerves. Why can we not all get along?

Last Hussar

sebigboss, awkward comment, but not aimed at your nationality, and not drawing a direct comparison, but...

We have seen 'These are our people, so we must move in to protect them' before.  I personally think Chamberlain was in exactly the same sort of bind - how to protect Czechoslovakia?  You can say 'This is wrong' without 'meddling'.

"To stay neutral in the struggle between powerful and the weak, is to side with the weak."
I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain why you are wrong.

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little."
Franklin D. Roosevelt

GNU PTerry

nikharwood

Perhaps some levity...


Alan

Haha! I like that cartoon. Yes very good. I think if Putin and Obama had a fight, Mr.P would win. If it were a dance off however...

Still it looks like drama over. America have said they will come and sort our energy requirements out so we are all safe and sound. You don't think the Americans had this idea planned all along do you? No, nor do I!

right, back to hitting the kids with a stick. Lets see if we can get the evil out them. I would go for a beer in the fridge first but the kitchen held a referendum this morning which the wife and kids supported and its now no longer part of this house. I hope John Kerry comes along and pours a can of Fosters through the letter box or I am done for.

nikharwood

This should help de-escalate too...


nikharwood