Crimea

[paulr]

Let's face it; there's not much the West can do without escalating this situation beyond control, but I think the West should better be aware and make some serious thoughts on were the line should be drawn for the future and how far we're willing to go when it is crossed.
Best of luck Ukraine, looks like you're on your own in this one...

Perhaps they should have thought about that before getting Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons (third largest stokepile at the time). Ukraine, the United States of America, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, pledging to respect Ukraine territorial integrity...

Sounds like Munich in 1938 to me

Although given the antics of the various recent leaders of the Ukraine, them not having nukes is a good thing

Retiring to the Carolinas in 1781

[sebigboss79]

I think it is pretty clear that the Crimea will be a part of Russia for the next decades. Apparently the bully of the neighbourhood gets his way and others, understandably  though it is, will stand aside  and hand the victim a band-aid. Sure it is understandable that the Russians don't like what is happening so close to their borders, but does that mean they can act any way they want to protect their interests? I don't think so really.
Personally I don't see any direct escalation crossing the border of the Ukraine but the latest remarks of the Russian ambassador  at the UN that the, in Russian eyes still legitimate, president Janukovich apparently asked Russia to help  restore order in the Ukraine gives them an excuse to push their forces beyond the Crimea might they feel like it.
Let's face it; there's not much the West can do without escalating this situation beyond control, but I think the West should better be aware and make some serious thoughts on were the line should be drawn for the future and how far we're willing to go when it is crossed.
Best of luck Ukraine, looks like you're on your own in this one...

Cheers,
Rob

Really interesting will be what position "new Ukraine" seeks and whether Nato is really gonna let them in AND if need be fight over it.
The least we will now have is a new Cold War, at worst we can start "trainin' the boys".

[Ace of Spades]

Really interesting will be what position "new Ukraine" seeks and whether Nato is really gonna let them in AND if need be fight over it.
The least we will now have is a new Cold War, at worst we can start "trainin' the boys".

Actually I believe that is why Putin was so quick to act the way he did; he must have known that after securing sufficient funds for the immediate economic survival of the 'new Ukraine' talks with NATO about membership were sure to follow. Let's face it; if I were the 'new Ukraine' I would give it a go too!
I do believe we have dozed off rather quickly after we decided the Cold War was over and the Soviet Union was no longer a threat. It was all to convenient to stop investing in army, navy and air force and focus on terrorists in far off countries. Perhaps we should see this as a wake up call and try not to take what we have for granted. Things can change pretty quickly...

Cheers,
Rob

[GordonY]

Dunno whats about to happen there, but it'll be tears before bedtime I think, dont think its gonna be long before there's shooting over there.

[OldenBUA]

No, this crisis is fuelled by German/Polish/American naive assumptions the Russians will let them dig in their own back yard. To quote LeMay: "The Red Dog digs in our back yard, we are justified to shoot it." Alas, these matters work two ways. If the interim Ukrainian leadership has any sense they will order their forces to stand down and withdraw them from the Crimean penninsular to take the heat out. What are the alternatives?

I have kept quiet so far. And I don't want to get into any political discussion. This forum is not the right place for it, and as we all know politics are best left outside.

BUT

This crisis is fuelled by one thing only; Russian mentality. They still live in a bygone age, while the world around them has changed. A lot. If you know what kind of claptrap the Russian media pour out every day to their own people, you know what I am talking about. While in Ukraine, things have changed (VERY much to the chagrin of the Russians). I'm mainly thinking of the Orange revolution here, rather than the more recent one.

Things in Russia will not change, unless the Russian people wake up, like they did in Ukraine. Sadly, that will not happen. Not with the kind of control over the media that Putin has. Not with the total lack of basic democratic rights. Not with the current Russian mentality. So Russia can continue to bully all it's neighbours, and the West will look on, and waffle and sputter and so on. But will do nothing. And where will it stop?

I sincerely hope everything will have a good ending. Yes, it's Realpolitik. And Putin always plays his game very well. So probably the Crimea will be lost to Ukraine. And then? Eastern part as well? The whole country? Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania maybe? Belarus, ofcourse, maybe some kind of Anschluss. Some of the Stan's next? Maybe Finland? Might as well ring up Merkel, and see if an agreement can be made about Poland. Back to the good old days.

[get2grips]

I sincerely hope everything will have a good ending. Yes, it's Realpolitik. And Putin always plays his game very well. So probably the Crimea will be lost to Ukraine. And then? Eastern part as well? The whole country? Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania maybe? Belarus, ofcourse, maybe some kind of Anschluss.

I worked with an Estonian; she despised the Russians.

Her words: "there jets still fly over; they say "we are still here!""

In the smaller Eastern European countries, they still fear a return to "the old ways."

However this plays out, it's very sad and their will be no winners

[Techno]

However this plays out, it's very sad and their will be no winners

Sad, but true Gareth.
Cheers - Phil

[OldenBUA]

I worked with an Estonian; she despised the Russians.

Which comes as no surprise. Maybe some people have not noticed that the Russians have done a lot of things to antagonize their 'own backyard' in the previous decades (and before).

[sebigboss79]

I have kept quiet so far. And I don't want to get into any political discussion. This forum is not the right place for it, and as we all know politics are best left outside.

BUT

This crisis is fuelled by one thing only; Russian mentality. They still live in a bygone age, while the world around them has changed. A lot. If you know what kind of claptrap the Russian media pour out every day to their own people, you know what I am talking about. While in Ukraine, things have changed (VERY much to the chagrin of the Russians). I'm mainly thinking of the Orange revolution here, rather than the more recent one.

Things in Russia will not change, unless the Russian people wake up, like they did in Ukraine. Sadly, that will not happen. Not with the kind of control over the media that Putin has. Not with the total lack of basic democratic rights. Not with the current Russian mentality. So Russia can continue to bully all it's neighbours, and the West will look on, and waffle and sputter and so on. But will do nothing. And where will it stop?

I sincerely hope everything will have a good ending. Yes, it's Realpolitik. And Putin always plays his game very well. So probably the Crimea will be lost to Ukraine. And then? Eastern part as well? The whole country? Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania maybe? Belarus, ofcourse, maybe some kind of Anschluss. Some of the Stan's next? Maybe Finland? Might as well ring up Merkel, and see if an agreement can be made about Poland. Back to the good old days.

I hate to object but the real crisis started when Steinmeier went to Kiew and together with the Polish SecState imposed a regime change WITHOUT consulting the Russians. I guess everybody would be pXssed off at that.

If you are dealing with a madman then you do not aggrevate him. But I keep saying Putin's actions are absolutely rational. And moreover according to contractual agreements he can have 25,000 troops, over 100 ships and and and in the Crimean without technically violating anything. It is rather naive to believe Putin would give up the Black Sea fleet where it is. It is Russias ONLY asset against aggression from the South. Whether this kind of thinking is cold war mentality or not, the Russians still have a fallout shelter for every person in Moscow whereas "the West" has filthy rich individuals and the bottom parts of society must rely on foodbanks.

A bit more reality shock in the west would certainly be beneficial. No Russian action in Crimea is not "nice" but telling the Ukrainian soldiers to surrender and "get lost" is better than some Ukrainian hothead starting a shooting war. Putin said he does not like Nato at his borders. Nato goes on his borders. Putin says he does not agree with the Missile Defence system (at his border), the US places the systems there. Now how long do you think Putin is letting "the West" do what THEY want before he does what HE wants?

So contenance si vous plait and carefully think if our politicians really have acted in OUR best interest.

[Ace of Spades]

The big difference I feel is that Putin does what he wants on other peoples property... He can place all the missile systems he wants in countries that want them, he can close mutual defence deals with all the countries that want to close the deal freely. Of course the West didn't ask Putin if he would agree with a regime change; it is not really his bussiness though he certainly will have an opinion about it (and one that is probably not in agreement with what the people in the country it concerns want). The thing is, in my opinion, should we really do what somebody like Putin wants just because he will threaten or bully you? If you are dealing with a madman it is certainly not wise to aggravate him but call the police and make sure he gets off the street so he doesn't threaten any body else...

In the end Putin certainly will have seen trouble coming his way but the fact is that no Russians were molested because of their ethnic background, no Russian soldiers have been disarmed, no Russian ships have been banned from the port of Sevastopol and neither were the Russians told to start packing. If anybody then Putin should have been the first one to contact the Ukranian government, the EU or even NATO to share his concerns and I'm certain he would have been given a very fair deal. The problem is that he doesn't seem to be interested in a fair deal; he wants it all and he wants it now. At least he's making everybody believe that he will take what he wants when he wants it and we now have to be gratefull that he doesn't do so immediately. Seems a bit like the other way round to me.

Even so; I am indeed happy that our politicians are calling for common sense to prevail but as I stated before (without wanting to propagate a new arms race!) this is a very serious wake up call for the West; lets not stay in bed too long now...
(please, if anybody feels that this is getting too personal let me know and I will stop this thread immediately, it's just something I'm interested in and like to share views on with other people; not nescessarily those that are in line with mine... )

Cheers,
Rob

[sebigboss79]

In principal you are correct but it is also not "the West's" business to change a regime.

Especially when said regime immediately attempts to nullify the contract that allows Russian presence AND forbids Russian as an official language (which before that was equal with Ukrainian).

The real escalationists I am afraid are found in the West and Putin has not invaded any country when Nato acted against his warnings before. Maybe this is just the step that was too much? Would you be happy with a Russian forward deployment base in your back yard? I certainly would object to such.

[Ace of Spades]

You certainly have a point, but if I'm not mistaken the protests in Kiev mainly originated from the public looking for closer ties to the EU and trying to convince the president to move that way rather then looking towards Russia. I actually believe that the offer of the EU was on the table quite a while ago and that it just came to a point when the Ukraine president had to decide whether to sign it or not. He then got 'bribed' by Putin to ignore the EU offer and with that the opinion of (what I believe to be) a substantial part of the Ukranian people. We didn't hear too much from Putin then. Why? I think it is because Janukovich promised him he would keep the rabble at bay and Russia wouldn't have to worry about a thing. Then the sh*t hit the fan and Janukovich got scared (rightfully so!) and ran off. Putin now found himself up the creek without his, quite expensively bought,  paddle...
Since the people (on Maidan at least) didn't seem to be interested in anything pro-Russian it was of course no surprise that in the heat of the moment feelings weren't too friendly towards Russia (although I don't believe towards the Russians within the Ukraine).
Putin now had just one card left up his sleeve and that is the one he played through handing out Russian passports, making excellent use of his propaganda machine by spreading fear and finally the use of brute force.
I believe the Ukraine government would certainly have been interested in talks because they know they have nothing to gain in the long term by turning their back on Russia. If only Putin would have avoided this powerplay and had a cup of coffee with them. Instead he choose the other way. Indeed; he may do this to make his point towards the West and in Russian culture this may be the way to get respect; most of the rest of the world sees things differently...
I believe NATO was as much surprised by the sudden change of power in the Ukraine as Russia was; they both just reacted different.
And indeed; I would not be very comfortable with a Russian forward deployment base in my back yard but if on the other hand my neighbour would voluntarily grant it to them I wouldn't really think of getting into his garden and tell him not too. I would on ther hand strengthen my fence! 

Best regards,
Rob

[sebigboss79]

In short the EU paper was in place and revoked by the government Yanukovich that had been voted into power by the people.

Such is democracy.

The point stands where the EU then imposed (whether using the Maidan demonstrators or being abused by them after the agreement is irrelevant) rather than negotiated WITH the Russians. They chose to go behind Putin's back (yet again) and concering the Nato and EU membership of former Soviet states the concerns of the Kremlin should be taken into account. This is exactly what repeatedly had NOT been done.

Let us stay with our neighbourhood example where your neighbour has such a base and all of a sudden telle Ivan to f.. off. While you are Ivan's enemy and having such a strong fence Ivan can either pack his bags OR defend his "right" to the base (which the Maidan government immediately revoked - against the law) and use his superior force to deny your neighbour access to the back yard.

It is absolutely understood that putting troops in the base WITHOUT occupation of the whole Crimean would have been wiser but looking at history it is clear while Putin defends his bases not at their gates but further north. While accepting such measures is beyond question I also see the whole problem (bases, enemy at the gates AND pro-Russian majority of population).

Bribes from Putin must have been larger than those from the EU I guess.

I am sure we are agreed that Putin now plays this very very cool. He has put his cards on the table: Crimean is ours.
The Western powers have already stated they are not going to war over it.


So why the bloody fuss? This was and is a matter between the Kremlin AND whatever legitimate government of Ukraine. And Putin has said while that is de-jure Yanukovich he will not negotiate with people that have no political future. Heck he even suggested free elections in December. THEN the status of the Crimean base can be negotiated - something the hothead interim government attempted to undermine by declaring the Budapest accords void.

In summary it is easy to point at Putin but if you look behind the story you can see he has been fobbed off by the EU and the Americans a few times too often. He has been ignored while these events unfolded in a neighbouring country. Moreover he has yet again been fobbed off by bringing a future Nato member close to EU with "American 1st tank Division at the border ready to roll" (this is how they see it unfortunately).

Furthermore the list of countries Russia unlawfully invaded is much shorter than the equivalent list for the US. - I come to think we call the wrong people our friends!

[Last Hussar]

The mistake was Yanukovich started shooting protesters.  Up to that point it was 'This is who you voted for'.  Once the police fired, then its hard for a president NOT to get condemnation.

The wider problem is that these are fledgling democracies.  The populance thinks 'We ousted the last guy, ergo, we can do the same to anyone who pisses us off'.  See Egypt for details.

[Leman]

I think a lot of destabilisation occurred in Europe when US President Wilson insisted on self-determination at the end of WWI. Now the US is crying over a majority Russian population in the Crimea saying they want to be part of Russia. Thanks Wilson.