Why doesn't Ukraine claim St Petersburg, since that seems to be the game at present?

You ever played Risk...

Hmm. We have All heard of 'Annexation'... and know where it can go. It is a VERY different World now.
I WANT to see Ukraine TAKE BACK territories 'Annexed' by Russia.
Putin is becoming very much like Hitler.
I worry!
Hitler was'fairly sensible' (LOL!) until reverses in WW2 and addiction drove him 'well over'. Putin has already gone well past this.
I CAN see Putin using Tac Nukes.
What do WE do?
I DO NOT want MY people Fried! Maybe Putin, also. BUT... if HE starts.. GO FOR IT!
LIMITED... but...!!!
JEEZ!

Bar argument, maybe NOT your own, but... Old Days... mostly posturing, but, goes on and  Kicks off... and, if not restrained by someone.. somebody... smashes bottle/glass. Restraint still possible... but VERY much more risky for all around. NOW... you, as restrainer, would be VERY watchful, leaving Pub... Illegal guns around... and You have not got one. Cops might have, but Too Late.

Heedless you must have drank in the Bigg Market going by your analogy.   

QuoteYou ever played Risk...

Claim Aus / NZ and stack your armies in PNG.

Howayman.
Nah! Just Village! Toonies in transit vans were not welcome!  They were just after local 'posh' lasses! Farmers lads sorted it! I was a bit too young to get involved! Later... some scuffles! Nearly had neck broke... attempting to 'break up' someone elsle's fight...Blue on Blue! lol! 80s were WILD! Never been a fighter, but, Sort of miss the 'Old Days'! Now...; TOTALLY BORING!
Toonies now live here... village has Gone. And far too old to be bothered!

Now, you get cautious about 'Strange' blokes... and check armpiits. A lot more armed than you would think. I have been approached by what I think were dope dealers... or pimps...quietly look at coats... and just say NO THANK YOU!  I Could be unjust! But am not gay!
Not a Village anymore! 

Time to burn the White House again and take back British America.

Quote from: Gwydion on 01 October 2022, 10:59:56 AMTime to burn the White House again and take back British America.

Gwidion:
No... time is past... WE don't really want any more S**t than we have already got! 

Quote from: Heedless Horseman on 01 October 2022, 11:15:43 AMGwidion:
No... time is past... WE don't really want any more S**t than we have already got! 

I think the Americans might be thinking the same, well the sane ones

I heard a very interesting radio program on Friday afternoon - BBC R4 - about Rare Earths ... bear with me on this one folks, it does have a relevance to this thread.

What it did was look at where all the Rare Earth deposits were and what was going on around them, and (low and behold) one of the largest area for various rare earths just happens to be ... you guessed it ... in the east of Ukraine right under all the various territories that Putin has just Annexed.
The program estimated that the potential current market value of what the Russians are sitting on in Ukraine is about $178 trillion worth. So maybe Putin is not playing the game we all thought he was playing (although I suspect somebody on this forum could probably beat him at RISK!).
The program went on to say that, whilst this might all look like a coincidence, there is a pattern here. Crimea also has a lot of rare earths and also a large Russian backed mercenary group has been working in Africa for quite some time now (I think it is called the Vanguard Group) and guess what ... it is appearing in all the 'hot-spots' and troubles-zones where there are large deposits of, yes ... Rare Earths.

And of course Rare Earths are just the thing you need for decarbonisation technology. So is Russia actually enacting a strategy to grab the equivalent of the next oil regions ... hmmmm.

Not at all bad as a conspiracy theory goes I thought ...     

It's not just the rare earth metals.
Byline Times did an interesting article on Russian climate change meetings. Every year their scientists report to Putin (why do I have to stop myself typing Soviet and Stalin???), their version of Davos. Last year's report showed that although climate change will bring some benefits that are exploitable - ie increased ice melt means more access to resources within arctic circle, and more northern lands in theory can be opened up to food growing, the same changes will reduce the crop yields in current growing areas. By an amount greater than the potential gains further north.
What does Ukraine have? Shedloads of arable land, with some of the least depleted soil cover on the planet (ie 95 harvests left instead of 55). What did Zelenksi do in 2021? Allow foreigners to buy farmland as it comes up for sale for the first time. Enter US corporations with their GMO sterile seeds and roundups. Thus it could be interpreted that Putin's war, like most before, is just the usual resource grabbing and not as much to do with "Nazi regimes and expansion of NATO". It's good cover rhetoric to foist on a press on both sides that can't do basic journalism for multiple reasons.
The article is here:
https://bylinetimes.com/2022/04/21/putins-war-on-net-zero-controlling-europes-breadbasket-to-prevent-russias-fossil-fuel-collapse/
Then there is the coal and iron deposits in eastern Ukraine too.

Mark

When the war first started the only logical reason I could find was some kind of resources grab, although I was thinking more traditional fare like fossil fuels/crops, I had no idea about the rare metals.  They'd grab a chunk of land, extract as much as they could in a 3-6 month window and then claim a tactical retreat 'in the interests of peace'.  But then as they stormed across Ukraine and straight for Kyiv it seemed like a more aggressive attempt at reclaiming Soviet borders, a last throw of the dice for an aging dictator to leave his mark.

As it stands I don't know what to think anymore.  The war has achieved everything Russia didn't want, with a strengthened NATO, a crashed domestic economy, and the weaknesses of the Russian war machine exposed.  Putin's ego and position means he can't afford to lose, but the standard of these mobilised troops and the overall moral of his army indicates that a win is unlikely.  Even this desperate attempt at claiming the land after a 99% referendum result (why's it always 99%?!) isn't going to change things on the ground.

What's worrying is that I always thought Putin was a more considered style of dictator and manoeuvred himself carefully on the world stage.  As this conflict drags on he's backing himself further and further into a corner and the only way out is for him to be removed, or to hit that shiny red button.  I'd hoped that someone sensible in the ranks below might have taken that decision for him by now, but sadly not.

Quote from: Leon on 01 October 2022, 10:05:01 PMWhat's worrying is that I always thought Putin was a more considered style of dictator and manoeuvred himself carefully on the world stage.  As this conflict drags on he's backing himself further and further into a corner and the only way out is for him to be removed, or to hit that shiny red button.  I'd hoped that someone sensible in the ranks below might have taken that decision for him by now, but sadly not.

I always thought he "unpleasant" but I now wish I had taken more seriously those people who said he was an insidious Hitlerian figure. Certainly not an individual to be admired for his leadership qualities

Hmmm, I've been disappointed by the way the Russians have put up with the whoreson. I'd got the impression from a number of Russian students that the place had grown up a bit, but it's become clear that the brave voices raised against him are not those of Ivan in the street.

I was rather dubious about the 'intent' of the thrust towards Kyiv.

Of course, if resistance had crumbled and Ivan could have driven straight into Capital... vodka all round! But, the way the column stalled and just sat there? Drawing troops, resources and attention away from East... the declared target area.

Just, maybe, Russians were not quite as stupid and hopeless as we assume... and intent was a massive, VERY costly, Feint? Putin not bothered about losses... and historically, Russians are not, either.

It has been pointed out in various places, that the column was very seriously under-manned, with some troop carrying vehicles only having the driving/fighting crew and much less than a full complement of infantry... if any!

Once purpose served... pulled back... disastrously... but East largely 'secured'. Ukrainian  tenacity and Russian incompetence has meant that much territorial gains since lost... maybe more to come. But, large, important chunks now annexed by Russia... in name, anyway.... but allowing a shift in strategy... hence mobilisation and threats.

I have only warched short clips, but does anyone else think that Putin looked, just a little bit 'shaky' in 'celebrations'? Wishful Thinking, maybe!

I very vaguely remember... in the early years following The Wall coming down and break-up of USSR... some warned of a rising Russian 'leader' who was very 'nationalist' in intent. Was that Putin? I do not recall name.

Back then, I thought West far too quick to write off Russia as a potential future threat... but, of course, attention shifted to Middle east.

I think it's immensely difficult to have a rational conversation about this topic as there is so much propaganda and counter propaganda about.

We liked Putin back in the late 90s.

He was sober for a start, and Yeltsin had abandoned control of the country to corrupt oligarchs in league often with western mafia capitalism.

We had an ally, a strong ally who wanted to face against Islamist terror.
In 2000 he had suggested Russia join NATO.

He had his own problems with Islamist forces in Chechnya, and he was the first foreign leader to ring George W Bush post 9/11 and offer condolences and help. He facilitated the establishment of US bases in Central Asia for the invasion of Afghanistan.

The quid pro quo of course was no 'interference' in Russia's 'natural areas of interest' - the 'lost' provinces of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldovan transdniestria and the Transcaucasus region.

Someone in the US decided that not only was that unreasonable (despite the continuing existence of the Monroe Doctrine in the Americas) but actively interfered in destabilising pro Russian feelings in these regions.

NATO - pushed eastward against the understanding Russia thought it had (the US records of the 1990 meetings between Sec of State Baker and Gorbachev are available at the National Security Archive at George Washington University, Washington DC - online here - https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16117-document-06-record-conversation-between

Despite this, the the US said in 2008 it wanted Georgia and Ukraine in NATO. This pushed Russia's 'surrounded' button. It may seem odd to our vision of the world but it's a Russian fear since Teutonic Knights and Polish/Lithuanian attacks in the West and Mongol/Tartar hegemony in the East.

The overthrow of the elected Ukrainian President Yanukovych (his 2010 election described by international observers to have been transparent, unbiased and an "impressive display" of democracy) by a mob consisting of students infiltrated by armed fascists (not Russian propaganda - you can see them in video and pictures in the Maidan) made Putin realise there was no deal to be done with a West that saw itself as the sole arbiter of what was acceptable in the world.

When Ukrainians wanted the President they had democratically elected (Yanukovych) to continue - Svoboda and Azov thugs killed 40+ people and injured hundreds more in an attack on protestors in Odessa . Then they replaced military units in the Donbas who would not fire on their Ukrainian compatriots who were against the Maidan coup and shot and shelled them into submission. Hardly surprising there was an uprising.

I don't condone or support Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But if you want to understand how we got here it is worth checking out the last thirty years before blaming it all on 'Mad Vlad', a Russian land grab, or stealing rare earth metals (although the latter no doubt made a stronger case in planning meetings). This was not an out of the blue whim, and Putin had been trying to talk to us about it for fourteen years

We are snowed under with propaganda just as much as Russia is and it is no way to make a rational choice about pushing to join a war where we could end the world.

We should be looking for a negotiated settlement without provoking a NATO/Russian war we managed to avoid for forty three years in the Cold War.

Quote from: Gwydion on 02 October 2022, 12:02:52 PMWe should be looking for a negotiated settlement .........

What should this negotiated settlement achieve?  Ukraine gives up part or all of its territory siezed illegally, by any reasonable judgment, by Putin's Russia since 2014?  I don't think so.  Putin has annexed territory, in two invasions, belonging to a neighbouring country that was never a threat to Russia.  People seem to forget that Putin has form.  He attacked Georgia in 2008 in similar circumstances, using similar rationale, and sent his assassins twice to this country.  Putin has been talking, to anybody who cared to listen, about restoring a Soviet-style sphere of influence, since the fall of the Soviet Union.  I doubt very much if this is the last territorial demand Putin has to make in Europe.  I think he will carry on behaving the way he does until a stop is put to him.

Crimea was only part of Ukraine because of Khrushchev's misplaced largesse and Yeltsin's hasty drunken power grab with Shushkevich and  Kravchuk breaking up the USSR in 1991. A negotiated dissolution would have dealt with that issue as Crimea was clearly Russian.

What would a negotiated solution look like?

I don't know, but a prolonged bit of jaw-jaw would be better than protracted war-war.

(Re Putin and Georgia - the USA's sudden jump in 2008 to offer a NATO Membership Action Plan to Georgia {and Ukraine} despite French and German objections provoked this. Georgia misread the USA's bluster expecting military intervention in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It is part of pattern of US provocation of Russia).

Ukraine is where my late father-in-law was born.  The rest of his family disappeared in 1939 when the Soviets grabbed Eastern Poland and incorporated it into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, formerly the Ukrainian People's Republic, itself annexed  by the Soviet Union in 1920.  Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in the 1950s but the history of Crimea goes back much further than that and it was never Russian until occupied in the 18th Century. 
But, none of this matters very much because, in 2014, Crimea was part of the territory of Ukraine.  It was recognised as such internationally.  Putin's annexation was illegal, and seen as such by all except his sympathisers and apologists.
Countries that joined NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union did so because they were afraid of Russia, and with very good reason. Trying to blame the US or NATO for provoking Putin is straight out of Moscow's 'song-book' –  provocation is what the Soviet Union and Russia have done for decades and only desisted in the past because of NATO, and because of the consequences of not doing so.
What we see now is history repeating itself.  You cannot negotiate with criminals, or appease them, nor should we.   
Perhaps if my home gets burgled I should negotiate with the burglar and let him keep the DVD player if he returns the TV and radio.  I don't ******* think so.