Well, I reckon I haver about 15 years worth of lead to paint and I'm already 68 so I doubt 3D printing will affect me. I also have absolutely no intention of getting involved in 3D printing, despite having a couple of Shapeways planes for WWI. I am also regretting spending years painting up Greeks, Romans, Carthaginians and Persians only to find that the Ancient rules available were dry as dust and no fun to play. Sold them all now. Furthermore I do game the Dark Ages and Medieval periods, but only with period specific rules, i.e. Dux Bellorum, Dux Britanniarum and Bloody Barons. Don't really equate post 400AD with the Ancient World.

Quote from: Ray Rivers on 26 November 2020, 07:22:31 PM
Having said that, I am surprised that no one has mentioned 3D printing. This is a disruptive technology that will one day have a huge impact on our lives. One can already see 3D printing moving into the small scale of miniatures.

It will be a significant factor in the (not far off) future, I believe.

I'm not convinced this is a technology that will be embraced quite so enthusiastically as it's advocates believe.

It's expensive, quality is not brilliant, it requires technical expertise the average joe doesn't have and, unless you are a commercial outfit or a hobby nerd (in a hobby that involves collecting things, to boot) the ability to produce multiple widgets doesn't seem that useful.

When they are as simple to set up and operate as a microwave I expect them to proliferate but I'm not sure that will be in my lifetime.

There again, that may be a prediction as valid as the, probably apocryphal, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"

The 3D printing aspect has come on a bit quicker than I expected it to in recent years, with the level of detail possible getting close to 10mm standard on the reasonably-priced resin machines but you're looking at several hours of printing time for just a few vehicles. There's also a lot of variables to deal with, from print beds needing to be levelled, some components needing to be replaced regularly, different resins having different print and cure temperatures, plus the need for curing stations and possibly cleaning machines depending on the type of resin being used.  The resin itself can be smelly and a pain to deal with, unless you go with a resin cartridge machine which adds a lot to the costs.

I think that currently we're in the 'Oh wow it's new technology!' phase where loads of people are trying it and both stls and printed models are ridiculously cheap.  There'll come a point though where those new businesses/people realise that they're not making any money from it and then we'll start to see subscription-based licenses, or limited-use licenses instead.  Similar to how Microsoft or Adobe have shifted from one-off software purchases to annual or monthly subscriptions. 

It certainly has its uses and we'll be getting a 3D printer in the new year, but the time it takes to print a model means that it's nowhere near close enough to generate a profit, so unless the print times come down drastically in the next few years then it won't be viable as a production method for quite some time.

Great response, Leon! Very informative.

Quote from: Leon on 26 November 2020, 09:19:36 PM
The 3D printing aspect has come on a bit quicker than I expected it to in recent years, with the level of detail possible getting close to 10mm standard

This is because much of 3D printing research is open source. I would expect the speed of development to accelerate and the machinery required to improve rapidly with a concurrent drop in price. One of the end goals is to make these machines as common as a TV in everyone's home and a total revolution in manufacturing in general.

As I said, your response was very informative from a manufacturer's viewpoint. From a home user viewpoint, however, it is quite another perspective. Imagine if you will that I have the ability to scan your miniatures and then print them for my own use at home. Suppose I "lend" the files to a friend of mine who does the same. The effect on your business, indeed the whole miniature manufacturing industry, could be devastating. Yep, it's illegal, but a really possibility.

I have already seen some folks printing off 3D files from video games. As I understand it, this is okay from a personal use legal perspective. But once this technology starts to become common place, real challenges for manufactures are on the horizon.

How do you view this possible future and have you given much thought to the challenges you may soon face?

One of the Facebook groups I'm on for Warmaster has since the start of the year almost entirely been people talking about/showing off their files and printed armies for Warmaster, there's hardly been any actual cast miniatures shown on that page for ages. It seems to be that once you're into that hobby space you're unlikely to buy miniatures again, now whether this is just a phase or not, I don't know, but most of them seem to end up in a position where they have multiple printers bubbling away to produce their armies and the detail to be fair looks pretty good for 10mm (though I'd like to see some of them painted to be sure) I've bought a few 28/32 mm figures off Etsy and the quality is astounding for a miniature that could never be cast in one piece.

Quote from: Ithoriel on 26 November 2020, 09:03:29 PM

There again, that may be a prediction as valid as the, probably apocryphal, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"

When I started work there were only 3 computers in the whole of UK Academia and one of those was in Edinburgh which I cut my computing teeth on.

From what I have seen a lot of people 3d printing have a very loose idea of copyright law, and get upset when owners complain that they are ripping them off. Battletech seems to be a good example of that, with large numbers of people creating files direct from publications.

Ian

Quote from: Ray Rivers on 26 November 2020, 10:17:16 PM
As I said, your response was very informative from a manufacturer's viewpoint. From a home user viewpoint, however, it is quite another perspective. Imagine if you will that I have the ability to scan your miniatures and then print them for my own use at home. Suppose I "lend" the files to a friend of mine who does the same. The effect on your business, indeed the whole miniature manufacturing industry, could be devastating. Yep, it's illegal, but a really possibility.

I have already seen some folks printing off 3D files from video games. As I understand it, this is okay from a personal use legal perspective. But once this technology starts to become common place, real challenges for manufactures are on the horizon.

How do you view this possible future and have you given much thought to the challenges you may soon face?

The piracy aspect is always concerning but I think there are still significant barriers to it.  The traditional barriers would be getting yourself a casting machine, melting pot and mould press, so you've got several £1000's before you can start copying anyone's work.  Similarly with 3D you'd need a high-level scanner to be able to scan the model at the required resolution (0.05mm would be the minimum required) so you're talking close to £1000 straightaway.  Then another chunk on a 3D printing setup and all you've got is a very slow production method that doesn't generate a viable profit.

If we ignore the illegality of it temporarily then the computer game and collectibles industries will be the most viable for pirates to concentrate on.  That's where we're seeing the focus at the moment and you can get all sorts of Star Wars or LotR designs on places like Thingiverse.  After that it might be licensed board games maybe, then GW, then 28mm Fantasy, then 28mm companies, etc.  We're so far down the ladder that there's no point at all in trying to copy our stuff.  Why take 2-3 hours to print a pack of 10mm figures when you'd have to sell them for more than the Pendraken RRP just to make any profit?  

Quote from: Ray Rivers on 26 November 2020, 10:17:16 PM
This is because much of 3D printing research is open source. I would expect the speed of development to accelerate and the machinery required to improve rapidly with a concurrent drop in price. One of the end goals is to make these machines as common as a TV in everyone's home and a total revolution in manufacturing in general.

I actually see it the opposite way, physical hardware like this will see it's fastest progress in the early years and then the development curve will flatten out (unless we hit something revolutionary).  The advances in plastic extrusion machines (FDM) have really stalled now and they will never be able to go beyond a certain speed as the components can't cope with the impact/jarring aspect.  We have the same with our laser cutters, we could run them at 50mm/second but the speed and changes of direction would knock all of the mirrors and alignment out.  The resin printers have got a lot of potential still to unlock with larger LCD screens and faster printing, but then there will be things like the curing and cleaning process that will slow it down.  I don't have any hands-on experience with them yet though so it's hard to say what can/can't be vastly improved.

Quote from: Sandinista on 26 November 2020, 11:39:38 PM
From what I have seen a lot of people 3d printing have a very loose idea of copyright law, and get upset when owners complain that they are ripping them off. Battletech seems to be a good example of that, with large numbers of people creating files direct from publications.

I think this leads to a vital point and that's the response of our legal systems to these advances in technology.  If the corporations with huge IPs like Star Wars, Marvel, Pokemon, etc. start to see 3D scanning/printing impacting on their profits then you can guarantee that a change of legislation won't be far behind.  As we've seen with the Disney-led extension of copyright law to protect the rights to Mickey Mouse, there'll be a big push to either make it easier to raise IP infringment cases or increase the penalties for pirating.  

One thing that pirates never seem to consider is that it can completely bankrupt them.  Sending in a forensic accountant to calculate how much they've sold can result in all manner of estimated turnovers, regardless of whether that number was accurate or not.  They might have sold 20 packs but the accountant might estimate sales at 200 packs based on metal bought, bank records, size of the casting operation, etc.  So you get charged with piracy, your equipment can be confiscated, you get fined way beyond the money you made and on top of it all you can go to jail for several years.  I don't see the point.

In my previous life as a modelmaker for a design company, I have seen constant articles etc about home printing over the past 20+ years. Yes you can do it and you can get very good machines for less than £500. But and it's a big but, they take a lot of time to print, post process, clean and service the machine, sort out the files, they are not terribly reliable (from a business point of view) as you can't run them 24/7 which you would need to do. Then add in the issue of resin durability, which is getting better, but it is no where near good enough for gaming IMHO. The FDM ones that are durable, have such poor resolution that you can't use them for smaller scale printing.

So I can't see them replacing traditional cast figures any time in the foreseeable future, but they are perfect for making masters etc for moulding.

Steve your comments remind me of the IBM CEO in the early 50's - who thought that the US would need 5b or 6 mainframnes. Stuff evolves faster than most people expect.

The standard is getting pretty high I think: https://www.excellentminiatures.com/miniatures/epic-scale/10mm-warmeister/empires-of-man/374/empires-of-man-bowmen?c=56

I own a bunch of Pendraken stuff and will almost certainly buy more but my interest is 10mm fantasy. Compare the pendraken wood elf range with the forest dragon range and the variation and detail are vastly different. I prefer to own metal minis but there's an outright winner for me there.

Someone posted that they preferred the TB line sculpts and that new Pendraken models should be based off this causing a bit of a backlash amongst the staunchly loyal which is all right and proper. People should look after their local but given the standard of detail from the competition the original poster had a point. Having an oversized bow hand isn't likely to win someone over when the sculpting quality differs so much, TB line don't have as much of this.

I don't honestly believe that level of detail is necessary in 10mm as once you've started a game the attention isn't on the dynamic pose and properly braided hair of the figure in the back rank of your 4th archer regiment BUT they do look more attractive at point of sale.

I sculpt some of my own miniatures within my limited capability and still haven't mastered many facets of 10mm, maybe never will. I'm happy with the models I've made as they are an accurate representation on the desktop. One thing I have learnt modelling in 10mm is that if you make your own it takes loads of time but you can have more dynamic poses and more/finer detail if you're not making them with the idea they'll be cast. It appears from the 10mm fantasy 3d files that this freedom is also enjoyed by digital sculptors.

Stuff is evolving as you say Ian, but it is essentially the same technology as 20+ years ago, but on smaller platforms and a tad more accurate. However the issues of reliability, post processing and durability haven't changed.

Quote from: Leon on 27 November 2020, 12:11:52 AM
We're so far down the ladder that there's no point at all in trying to copy our stuff.  Why take 2-3 hours to print a pack of 10mm figures when you'd have to sell them for more than the Pendraken RRP just to make any profit?  

Yeah, can't see that happening.

But I can see people printing figures just for their own use. Although in 10mm I think it'd be easier to make a stand of 5/6 figures joined - as GW used to and Copplestone do now - rather than an individual figure. I can also see it being  used for one-off's or larger figures. Need a 10mm giant frog-like figure in a Buddha pose for your Lizardmen army?

Quote from: Ray Rivers on 26 November 2020, 10:17:16 PM
Great response, Leon! Very informative.

This is because much of 3D printing research is open source. I would expect the speed of development to accelerate and the machinery required to improve rapidly with a concurrent drop in price. One of the end goals is to make these machines as common as a TV in everyone's home and a total revolution in manufacturing in general.

As I said, your response was very informative from a manufacturer's viewpoint. From a home user viewpoint, however, it is quite another perspective. Imagine if you will that I have the ability to scan your miniatures and then print them for my own use at home. Suppose I "lend" the files to a friend of mine who does the same. The effect on your business, indeed the whole miniature manufacturing industry, could be devastating. Yep, it's illegal, but a really possibility.

I have already seen some folks printing off 3D files from video games. As I understand it, this is okay from a personal use legal perspective. But once this technology starts to become common place, real challenges for manufactures are on the horizon.

How do you view this possible future and have you given much thought to the challenges you may soon face?

If one looks at 2d printing, we see improved machinery, and falling prices.

However, the falling price is most notable at the entry level: meaning you can now pick up a printer from Also for £15 that compares favourably with one that might gave cost £120 10 years ago.
It isn't much better, doesn't print faster, and probably dies after an ink change or two - but it is a lot cheaper (Probably cheaper than an ink refill).

Move a couple of steps up the food-chain and you start to see the really good stuff.
Hybrid print copiers with fast printing, massive capacity.
They can inhabit a computer network and accept jobs form many different computer types.
Perhaps best, you can defer printing till you're ready to collect.

So Jerry sits in a meeting where Pam asks whether he can supply printouts of the slides.
Jerry can send copy to the printer that won't print until Pam arrives and badges-in to activate printing.

Lots of convenience, lots of features, but it is unlikely that most customers will use all of the features.
And then there's the price of ink.


As for 3d resin, I understand some of the stuff is quite toxic.
I'm not sure we want to play with stuff that could potentially kill us.
Oh no sir, I'll be sticking with my old lead figures....

 I think in the foreseeable future its more likely that the plastic injection molding of figures will have more impact on the traditional cast lead figure.  I think this is a bigger threat than 3d printing.

Yes the mold is very expensive, but subsequent production is literally pennies per sprue, and very fast.  Even selling boxes of 44 28mm figures for £22  you have a huge profit margin - possibly 10 times  the production cost, and yet the figures half the price (or less) than the cost of the metal equivalents. The detail is getting almost as good as metal figures

When a gamer can  get very  good cheap plastic figures for the rank and file of an army, they are likely only to buy metal for the specialist troop types .  There is very little profit in selling command or artillery packs on their own.