Quote from: Matt J on 17 March 2020, 09:59:20 AM
Word of caution on this.
I wasn't taking the whole thing that seriously until a conversation with my brother yesterday

There must be some real anxiety about the potential of this disease at government level if pretty much all nations are putting themselves into serious economic pain / peril to halt / slow down the spread.

On top of everything else, there may be a concern of the virus mutating as Corvid penetrates ever bigger numbers of the population and outpaces our ability to vaccine against it.

Quote from: Norm on 17 March 2020, 12:26:29 PM
There must be some real anxiety about the potential of this disease at government level ...

Maybe that it's not so picky who gets infected ...

Just chatting with a neighbour and ASDA continues to be chaos, but also they have increased prices over night on the same items. Profiteering or what?

Quote from: Big Insect on 17 March 2020, 11:00:50 AM
In the 18/19 Flu season - in the UK - there were 17,000 deaths associated with Flu. In the USA that was 69,000 deaths in the same flu season.  
TBF I have not researched the % deaths or the numbers who actually contracted Flu (in 18/19) and what % they were of the overall populations, but it would be really interesting to see some official stats on that.

I think the query with the 'it's just like flu' debate is how much higher the flu impact would be each year without our individual residual immunity from prior bouts of flu, and without the annual flu jabs available to large portions of the population?  Those 17,000 deaths are what's left after all of those precautions have been taken, so with something like Covid-19 where we don't have any previous infections to produce antibodies, no vaccines developed, the number could be massively higher.

Personally I'm still stuck on the fence with the whole thing and it just seems very surreal.  There's a part of me that sees this all as a big over-reaction and it'll blow over in a couple of months.  But then I look at the stats in other parts of the world and consider the potential impact.  Social media isn't helping anyone at this stage and it's getting harder to sift through the nonsense and get a true idea of what's going on.

We've got elderly relatives who are firmly in the 'at risk' bracket and we need to safeguard them as best we can.  But then we've got half a dozen people working for us who need that wage to keep themselves afloat so it's important that we carry on as long as possible.  

Interesting times ahead...

Been pout to Tescos this morning, and the car park was as packed as a nomal Saturday.  I got a pack of 9 loo rolls

They have notices up stating certain items are limited per customer, but customers are taling these down and kicking them under the shelves and they saying "there was no sign so you have to sell it to me! . The Staff are also getting loads of grief and abuse enforcing the limits.

I sad to her they need to put a big sign up at the entrance stating the limits and also saying if you give our staff abuse we will refuse to sell you anything.

Took some shopping to almost in-laws. (86 and 79). left it by the door and stepped back a bit, when they answered I asked if they had enough loo roll? They laughed and said did I want any...... They store them for the Parish Church so have Dozens and dozens. They said you will have to pay for them and they are "Fair Trade" so quite expensive compared to normal loo rolls.

Still as I have a  loo roll hanging by my painting table I am very relieved ( no pun intended) that I will not run out of loo roll for painting when I am in 3 months lock down.

As I said to Mrs Orcs "You don't want to be in a 3 month lockdown with an Orcs who can't paint cos of no loo roll"  To which she fully agreed 

Damnation - main school is closed for a fortnight. Not welcome for those on hourly wages.

I work for a multi national telecoms company, they are being very slow about taking any action on Corvid 19.  

The reason is I believe is that many of our contracts have stringent Service Level agreements written into the contract . eg  One account with the NHS has a condition that ALL phone calls have to be answered within 15 seconds.  If we fail to meet this on a single call they get a pay back (as free service) of £3 million (no that's not a typo 3 Million).

Consequently The company are not going to take precautionary measures before the Government makes them compulsory.(not advised but compulsory).  If the Government makes us all work from home and they fail to meet a Service level agreement they can claim "Force Majourer" , which voids the need for compensation.

So Until the government makes it compulsory we will all work as normal.

Quote from: FierceKitty on 17 March 2020, 02:04:54 PM
Damnation - main school is closed for a fortnight. Not welcome for those on hourly wages.

Step daughters school has just closed until after Easter. Due to not enough staff in. they have 60 pupils self isolating at the moment. 

27,980 cases in Italy

4,907 of these cases now have an outcome - 44% mortality....

Quote from: Matt J on 17 March 2020, 02:09:05 PM
27,980 cases in Italy
4,907 of these cases now have an outcome - 44% mortality....

Yes, but there is a bigger picture here, in that those are 27,980 recorded/known cases - the problem with the statistics is that most countries have no real idea what the actual infection rate is as they are not able to mass test. So they are actually only measuring the 'presented' cases. And by default these are the more severe. So the outcome for these presented cases will be much higher than the population as a whole.

Also if you look at the profile of who's catching it, and then who's surviving and who's not, you come back to the same conclusion.
If you are reasonably fit and healthy and you catch it, you are (based on current probability) going to be unwell for 7 - 10 days and then make a full recovery.
If you have an underlying medical condition - almost regardless of your age - you will be more unwell and there is a % chance that you potentially might die. But not from the disease, but from its impact upon your already weakened system.
I think the critical thing here is that a very high % of the population in most countries is actually fit and healthy. So the prognosis for that high % of population is good.
We should be focused on those in our societies who are vulnerable - have weak immune systems, other health issues (especially respiratory ones) and those who cannot keep themselves fed or adequately warm.

There is no doubt this is a crisis - a huge medical and social emergency - but I hope that with some sensible planning and adjusted social behaviours we can all pull through this.
It isnt the 1st and wont be the last pandemic emergency in human history.

How many have died today, Matt ?  .......Stroll on !

When I looked this morning it was 27,980 cases and 'only' 2158 deaths. ...which is still higher than the "3%" we're being told......I make that something over 7.5%  NOT GOOD.

On 4,907 out of  27,980 ?.......That's not 44%, surely ? (17% and a bit, I reckon.)

Cheers - Phil

On the BBC news now;

'Meanwhile, the government's chief scientific adviser said it would be a "good outcome" if 20,000 or fewer people died of the virus in the UK'.

(refers to UK)

Is that best case scenario?

Yesterday, they (BBC) said without intervention, modelling shows 81% infected with 500, 000 deaths by August, but with mitigation it could reduce to 260,000 (refers to UK), but that would still overwhelm intensive care capacity.

How did we sleepwalk into this, there was a fair bit of notice coming out of China, even by January.

My wife and I have been talking about this over a few weeks and the general reaction to it. Having lived in Nigeria where there are on average 54,000 deaths a year from malaria (mainly in children under 5), which would equate to roughly 27,000 in the UK. Then there are the deaths from typhoid, cholera, meningitis etc on top of that. Yet society carries on as normal as they are so used to it.

Now this is not to belittle what is going on, but as Mark has already highlighted, the deaths from flu each year are much higher than the current deaths from Covid-19. Yes it is wise to take precautions, but the panic buying that is going on is a massive over reaction IMHO.

Oh and the schools have started partial closures here due to staff shortages. My wife expects them to be closed by the end of the week.

Quote from: Techno on 17 March 2020, 03:17:01 PM
How many have died today, Matt ?  .......Stroll on !

When I looked this morning it was 27,980 cases and 'only' 2158 deaths. ...which is still higher than the "3%" we're being told......I make that something over 7.5%  NOT GOOD.

On 4,907 out of  27,980 ?.......That's not 44%, surely ? (17% and a bit, I reckon.) :-

Cheers - Phil

Hi Phil,

I think the latest number of deaths in Italy is 2,150.  I think the point that is being made is that of those cases that have been resolved, then 44% have died.

Yes that correct this is just cases that have been resolved, unfortunately death has a way of resolving issues quite promptly.... .

Of the unresolved cases most are mild conditions with only about 2000 or so being serious or critical. If there were no more recorded cases in Italy and the outstanding cases were resolved then the mortality rate would be better about 16%, which is still bad enough!