That just rephrases the question....

Best guess, there was a transmission very early doors from Wuhan and the infection probably got to a key hub such as petrol pumps, supermarket, gym, factory dining room, rail station or some-such that allowed enough large scale contact that it was well and truly out there before detection became a thing. The hub must have been something to do with people who are highly communicable and relatively mobile in their day to day activities.

What do I know, I'm just a wargamer who can't roll a '6'.

It has to start somewhere is the answer.

My ex finally reached out asking for Hydroalcoholic gel and masks...We don't have any either here.

My sister is an " anesthésiste-réanimateur " in France : They have zero instructions except wash your hands and use a mask. (to be fair, she isn't working ICU now but some gut-cancer-related surgeries)

She reacted really calmly : " People will die " and " I'll do my job ". She is used to make hard decisions when she worked ICU or ER.

The infuriating thing is being talked to like 8 years old by the authorities. They are still maintaining the township elections here, business as usual. I have insider sources that know for sure at least 1/3 of the electoral presidents committees will not attend in my city. I don't even know how they expect to have the electoral boots attended for, or even people going to vote. I sure won't let anybody handle my ID. I don't really think I'll vote.

This is such an illustration of total disconnect of the representatives from reality.

We are adults, talk to us as adults. Say " we don't know " or " It's going to be bad ".

I mean it is not even remotely comparable to the kind of decision leaders had to deal with during the Wold Wars... The persons in position of power need to grow a pair.

That's democracy. Tell the truth or endorse policies beyond five years into the future in their consequences, and you're looking for a job after the next election.

To be fair I think the UK government et al seem to be managing this one well in a measured way (we are British after all

Quote from: sultanbev on 09 March 2020, 10:11:20 PM
https://skwawkbox.org/2020/03/09/italy-confirms-national-lockdown-14-days-for-all-bar-essential-personnel/

Perhaps 2 weeks before England lockdown?

Mark

I thought I was the only ( occasional ) skawkbox reader on this site.

I have just sent an e-mail to my employer
,
Obviously I am not an expert on pandemics but I wonder if it a good idea to have a staff conference where we would have all the delivery staff in one place'

I vote.... "No."

Cheers - Phil

We may be slightly protected by British social norms.

I remember discussing the introduction of a new version of the communion service at our church with a recently arrived Episcopalian priest. On the matter of The Peace, the point at which the congregation are encouraged to greet each other "in the local manner," he opined that this was working perfectly, they ignored each other just as studiously in church as they did in the street!

Have a meeting tomorrow in work on coronovirus contingency. Half expecting something like this: https://donthitsave.com/comic/2020/03/06/coronavirus.

Authorities of Lombardia are considering a harsh lockdown (Martial law type) with only food and medicine jobs permitted to work. They say the soft lock down isn't helping enough. (yeah, nobody has masks !!!)

In the village of my son, a friend told me people were on top of each other in the supermarkets, buying 300€ of food (a lot for Italy) and leaving. The Carabinieri had to intervene to disperse people.

If you want to know how bad it will be in your country, search how many ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) you country owns. France has 180, and 5-10% of the infected need one to survive.
On another concerning note, 1% of the 0-9 years old still need hospitalisation. (The Chinese claim to have 0 deaths under 10 years old). In France, we have around 7.5 millions under 10 years old. So if 10% are infected, 1% of that is still 7500.
7500 beds of pediatric care that we don't have. Closing the schools is a necessity. The Chinese could pull ressources from their enormous country (both medical staff and equipment) : nobody is coming to help Europe.
We just don't have the capacity to handle this.

And still, people in France are saying " don't overreact, we are ready, it is not that bad..." I am not announcing the arrival of Aliens or some Divine punishment, I use numbers and consider our situation. I am extremely cold and cynical about it. And still, business as usual in France. People in Ajaccio (Corsica), a ducking MD on TV, " we shouldn't close the schools ! "

I feel like I am swimming inside a puddle of porridge.

I began coughing today.

I'm sure will all be fine... 

I really want to be wrong and look at my thought process in a few months and reflect on myself " I was stressed out, I over reacted..."

I really want to be.

South Italy will suffer, they have nothing compared to the North. I am just sad.

Quote from: Dr Dave on 10 March 2020, 05:04:14 PM
I'm sure will all be fine... 

Ditto. 

Cheers - Phil

Quote from: barbarian on 10 March 2020, 05:38:45 PM
I really want to be wrong and look at my thought process in a few months and reflect on myself " I was stressed out, I over reacted..."

I really want to be.

South Italy will suffer, they have nothing compared to the North. I am just sad.

You are not alone in that sadness. Italy is the last country in the world I'd wish an epidemic on.

Our Health Minister has caught it...