Lots of American tourists in the UK at present.  Free Nesters enjoying the strong US dollar.

I wonder if this has increased US sales with Pendraken ?

Against that the raw material is not mined in Durham, so is there an increase in the white metal costs as the Pound falls?

We have a good coterie of European gamers in the forum.  Are they buying up before the unknown of a potential no deal Brexit ?

I spend a week with a local Federation of Small Business.  Forward planning is impossible.

Now - without bringing the toxicity of Brexit Politics into the Forum, can we have an adult discussion as to how these changes impact our hobby?

I just made an order to pick up at crisis.

Other than that, i don't really order more now as i do otherwise.

Must admit i'm a bit worried about the crisis show itself. Hope traders don't stay home. Studio miniatures already made an announcement that they want to take as much pre order as they can because they don't know how much stock they can bring to the show, and brigade models states 'if brexit allows it' next to their crisis entry in their 'upcoming shows' section.

Sales outside the EU have increased hugely this summer, August was the busiest we've ever had and it's mostly large orders from the US (as well as some larger than usual UK orders as well).  The cost of the metal fluctuates quite a lot anyway so it's about the same each month.  There was a spike following the vote in 2016 where it jumped about 20% in a month, but it's slowly dropped back down to a reasonable level.

As for Crisis, I'm not sure what's going to happen there.  I'm sure I've read that even with a No-Deal that we're still in the customs union until January 2021 at the earliest, so the traders travelling this year and 2020 shouldn't have to worry about the VAT impact on taking their stock across any new border checks.  It's more likely to be travelling delays and disruption for this year with it being so close to the Oct 31st deadline, but those should be ironed out by 2020 (you would hope!)

I hope it's not a problem but we will see.

Just to be safe, i already sent 4 pre orders out for what i need 

Maybe I should get my Vikings orders done while the balance remains favourable.

Quote from: FierceKitty on 10 October 2019, 10:24:16 AM
Maybe I should get my Vikings orders done while the balance remains favourable.

Buy like there is no tomorrow.   The consensus is the Pound is too weak.  But the traders won't budget until EU-UK relations sorted as things too uncertain.
As for Brexit.  A no deal would be disastrous.  The paperwork for Leon attending  "Crisis" would be the same if the show were held in Moscow !

I sat last week and looked at the ATA certs, the MRN and EORI docs all needed to "export" from a non EU state into the EU.

Hmmmmm.....

I can see this thread causing some arguments !

I can quite understand James' thoughts.....But I don't want to see a Pro/Anti Brexit discussion starting....It'll just cause a lot of bad feelings.

Cheers - Phil

As long as we keep it wargame related we should be fine i guess.

Had an aswer today to one of my pre orders , and again with 'if brexit allows it". All arguments aside, it's sad that our hobby can potentially suffer from this. A lot of these small scale bussinesses don't earn a lot as it stands now but just manage to float by adding a lot of hours and passion for the hobby in to it.

Like i said to the man from the preorder : politicians do politics, and we usually pay the bill!

A pal of mine owns a Wargames company with employees. He sees the weak £ as good. Overall he sees Brexit as good for his company and staff. 

Quote from: Dr Dave on 10 October 2019, 08:29:58 PM
A pal of mine owns a Wargames company with employees. He sees the weak £ as good. Overall he sees Brexit as good for his company and staff. 

I genuinely hope he is right - I fear he is not.

Quote from: mollinary on 10 October 2019, 08:39:47 PM
I genuinely hope he is right - I fear he is not.

I think his biggest market place is the USA.

Quote from: Techno on 10 October 2019, 04:14:26 PM
Hmmmmm..... :-

I can see this thread causing some arguments !

I can quite understand James' thoughts.....But I don't want to see a Pro/Anti Brexit discussion starting....It'll just cause a lot of bad feelings.

Cheers - Phil

As I said in the opening remarks Phil, we are not discussion the pros and cons of Brexit - just a an adult debate about how Brexit may impact wargaming.
The weak pound is not just because of Brexit, but the hassle in the Gulf and because Crude Oil is sold in dollars

James

That's absolutely fine, James. 

As long as it 'stays here', as far as the discussion goes, there won't be any problem, at all.

Cheers - Phil

For myself, not a lot as I don't buy stuff from the US and Europe, with the shipping costs of the former always prohibitive.  Plus I have my lead mountain to tide me over for a good few decades at my painting rate .

Quote from: Techno on 11 October 2019, 08:28:49 AM
That's absolutely fine, James. 

As long as it 'stays here', as far as the discussion goes, there won't be any problem, at all.

Cheers - Phil

Absolutely Phil.  Like the Fed Small Business Group I facilitate, we leave our "remain" and "leave" hats at the door.   And focus on how decisions way beyond our control will impact on the Wargame business/hobby.

I had concerns for example, about the whitemetal  that Pendraken moulds into figures. What is the country of origin?  If its outside the EU or a member.  Leon has clarified that the price does fluctuate, but Pendraken can't just absorb hikes in raw material.   Post Brexit there may be a mega rise in paperwork to shift good to Europe.

I am also aware of Government funding to help business prep.   The British Chambers of Commerce (Middlesbrough) should be able - once the politicians make the decision - to advise regarding "Crisis" and if couched as a "Trade Show to retain traction/market share in Europe" should even be able to offer fiscal assistance.   

I think that's the real trouble at the moment, that nobody has any idea of what's going to happen so it's difficult to know what we need to do.  We've got our EORI number in place but they've not advised of much beyond that. 

Paperwork for exports is more of a hassle for large companies doing pallet sized exporting, so doesn't affect us as much.  Our export agent for 99% of our packages is Royal Mail, so we would just need to provide a HS Code for whatever we're sending out.  We're moving to a Royal Mail postage account in the next month as well, so that we're dealing with them directly rather than through our current franking machine.  This adds an electronic record of every package sent as well, which ticks more of the boxes for exporting.

If I'm honest, I can't see it affecting a great deal in direct terms for the customers.  If you're in an EU country and we leave the customs union then you'll be getting all of your products at the ex-VAT prices, saving you the 20% VAT on all your purchases.  That would then be offset by whatever your internal country VAT rate is, and most of those are about the same: France 20%, Germany 19%, Belgium 21%, Spain 21%, Netherlands 21%, etc.  I don't know if there are any additional handling charges for processing the parcels (like there is in the UK)?  And whether they catch every package or a large number slip through?  You could potentially get everything a lot cheaper if your Customs people don't check every parcel?

There may be some pricing adjustments on the postage side of things as the Royal Mail and European counterparts work out what they'll be charging each other.

Metal pricing is in $'s but fluctuates more on global market movement than currency exchanges.  When the Chinese were buying up raw materials 7-8 years ago the metal prices went through the roof, but it wasn't sustainable in the long-term and they had to start offloading it again, bringing the price back down.  As I mentioned above, Brexit caused an immediate 20% jump but it's come back down now and is roughly the same as it was just before the referendum.

So, best case is that they figure it all out and nothing really changes in terms of the customs union and exporting.  Worst case is that EU customers will have to pay an internal VAT + handling fee on their purchases and that our shipping charges might need to go up slightly.

(In the latter, smaller wargames businesses will suffer a lot more as they don't have the VAT to knock off for EU customers.  Their existing customers will have to start paying internal VAT + handling on top of the current prices.)

I believe handling price for customs in belgium is 7€. But small things usually get left alone. They check big ones though, i found that out when i bought a second hand cadian army from the USA.

But by some chance the bill in there stated 100€ instead of 400 (like i paid) and so taxes were minimal 

And as we speak, the mere hint of a deal - de jury customs border on the Irish border, de facto border Irish sea - and the Pound picks up and heads North.

The DUP won't like it, but the maths at Westminster are changed.  They already conceded a Single Market  check in the Irish Sea, so on a dodgy wicket.

N Ireland might even get a second referendum - "Do you wish to remain in the EU customs union?"   Yes/No    

Quote from: Sunray on 11 October 2019, 03:57:55 PM
N Ireland might even get a second referendum - "Do you wish to remain in the EU customs union?"   Yes/No    

No doubt followed by "Which union would you like to be a part of: UK or EU. Pick one."

If the NI Federation of SB get what we lobby for we will have the best of both in an Enhanced Economic Zone. https://fsb.org.uk>doc>default-source-fsb-org-uk-northernireland.  The Six County Area of Northern Ireland would  have Free Port Status.

For example :

I set up a NI company and buy wargame figures from Leon - no duty tax other than UK VAT which I reclaim from HMRC
I simply prime them.  They are now a Product of N Ireland (poni)
I can then sell to Peter and rest of EU without customs duty or paper work as long as bearing the PONI stamp.


Meantime the UK subvention (£10 billion?) under the Barnett Formula gives us NHS, free prescriptions and all other UK benefits.   

Like I said - best of both.