Help me with some Dice chances.

Started by Vulpine, 29 July 2012, 11:40:39 PM

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Vulpine

If I'm rolling 10D6 what's the chances of rolling triple 3?

Thanks
You're just a pathetic
bunch of tin soldiers,
skulking around the
galaxy in an ancient
spaceship!

Vulpine

Sorry, I mean triple 1 (although I know its the same) Or what's the chance of rolling dobble ones?
You're just a pathetic
bunch of tin soldiers,
skulking around the
galaxy in an ancient
spaceship!

Leon

I haven't completely figured out to use it, but there's a dice probability calculator here: http://anydice.com/

Using the string:

output 10d6 named "1, 1, 1, x, x, x, x, x, x, x" - (requiring 1's on 3 dice, and no requirements on the other 7)
 
gives a result of around 7%?  Whether any of that is correct though, is a whole other matter!

:D
www.pendraken.co.uk - Now home to over 10,000 products, including nearly 5000 items for 10mm wargaming, plus MDF bases, Battlescale buildings, I-94 decals, Litko Gaming Aids, Militia Miniatures, Raiden Miniatures 1/285th aircraft, Red Vectors MDF products, Vallejo paints, Tiny Tin Troops flags and much, much more!

lentulus

30 July 2012, 12:44:51 AM #3 Last Edit: 30 July 2012, 12:47:10 AM by lentulus
My mistake, Leon probably has it right.

Vulpine

Yeah, can't quite get that program to work. 7% sound right to me.

Thanks
You're just a pathetic
bunch of tin soldiers,
skulking around the
galaxy in an ancient
spaceship!

Derek H

The probability of rolling 3 or more 1s on 10D6 would be higher than that though.

Techno

30 July 2012, 10:55:06 AM #6 Last Edit: 30 July 2012, 11:39:45 AM by Techno
Glad you read the question properly LH.
I certainly didn't the first TWICE !! :-[
And now my comment has jumped in on top of yours.....AAAARGH !! :-[ :-[
Cheers - Phil.







Last Hussar

There are 60466176 different rolls with 10 x d6 - most will duplicate at least nine other results (9 x 1 + 1 x 6, same as 1, 6, 8x 1 etc)
I know that there are 36 combos where the first dice is one and 2 others are one
28 where die 2 is 1 (excluding one of the others being die 1)
21 where die 3 is 1 (Ex others being dice 1 or 2)
15 die 4
10 die 5
6 die 6
3 die 7
1 die 8 is 1, no duplicates

120 chances of EXACTLY 3 ones

Hmmm Excell and open office have functions to calc this - will look later
I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain why you are wrong.

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little."
Franklin D. Roosevelt

GNU PTerry

Techno

This is starting to make my brain hurt lots ! ;D :-/

Think there must be lots more combinations than 120 for 3 ones LH. ?
True...there would be 36 combos where the first dice is one....and two others are ones as well....But only if we ignore the 5 (numbers 2 to 6) possible variations on each of the other seven dice. 8-}
Don't we need to take those into account as well ? 

Cheers - Confused of Wales





Leon

I think one of us should grab a handful of dice, a pen and a piece of paper, and get rolling!
www.pendraken.co.uk - Now home to over 10,000 products, including nearly 5000 items for 10mm wargaming, plus MDF bases, Battlescale buildings, I-94 decals, Litko Gaming Aids, Militia Miniatures, Raiden Miniatures 1/285th aircraft, Red Vectors MDF products, Vallejo paints, Tiny Tin Troops flags and much, much more!

Techno

30 July 2012, 03:09:43 PM #10 Last Edit: 30 July 2012, 03:27:38 PM by Techno
What ?......
No....Write all the combinations down....All sixty and a half million of them.

I'll start....
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1.....

Cheers - Phil  ;) ;D

Orcs

I think this post is in the wrong section.

This maths is hardly "FUN STUFF" unless of course you havve masochistic tendancies ;D ;D
The cynics are right nine times out of ten. -Mencken, H. L.

Life is not a matter of holding good cards, but of playing a poor hand well. - Robert Louis Stevenson

sebigboss79

Or the original poster rofls about all of us actually rolling dices like there is no tomorrow...
;D

nikharwood

Quote from: Just a few Orcs on 30 July 2012, 03:35:48 PM
I think this post is in the wrong section.

This maths is hardly "FUN STUFF" unless of course you havve masochistic tendancies ;D ;D


Derek H

31 July 2012, 09:59:35 AM #14 Last Edit: 31 July 2012, 10:01:09 AM by Derek H
Using Pascall's Triangle you can work out that the probability of rolling exactly three ones on ten D6s is

120 q7 * p3

Where p is  probability of rolling a 1 = 1/6
And q is the probability of rolling a number other than a 1 = 5/6


That's about 2.15%