Pendraken Miniatures Forum

Non-Wargaming Discussion => Fun Stuff => Topic started by: Vulpine on 29 July 2012, 11:40:39 PM

Title: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Vulpine on 29 July 2012, 11:40:39 PM
If I'm rolling 10D6 what's the chances of rolling triple 3?

Thanks
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Vulpine on 29 July 2012, 11:43:59 PM
Sorry, I mean triple 1 (although I know its the same) Or what's the chance of rolling dobble ones?
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Leon on 30 July 2012, 12:42:15 AM
I haven't completely figured out to use it, but there's a dice probability calculator here: http://anydice.com/ (http://anydice.com/)

Using the string:

output 10d6 named "1, 1, 1, x, x, x, x, x, x, x" - (requiring 1's on 3 dice, and no requirements on the other 7)
 
gives a result of around 7%?  Whether any of that is correct though, is a whole other matter!

:D
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: lentulus on 30 July 2012, 12:44:51 AM
My mistake, Leon probably has it right.
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Vulpine on 30 July 2012, 06:21:57 AM
Yeah, can't quite get that program to work. 7% sound right to me.

Thanks
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Derek H on 30 July 2012, 09:29:51 AM
The probability of rolling 3 or more 1s on 10D6 would be higher than that though.
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Techno on 30 July 2012, 10:55:06 AM
Glad you read the question properly LH.
I certainly didn't the first TWICE !! :-[
And now my comment has jumped in on top of yours.....AAAARGH !! :-[ :-[
Cheers - Phil.






Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Last Hussar on 30 July 2012, 11:18:38 AM
There are 60466176 different rolls with 10 x d6 - most will duplicate at least nine other results (9 x 1 + 1 x 6, same as 1, 6, 8x 1 etc)
I know that there are 36 combos where the first dice is one and 2 others are one
28 where die 2 is 1 (excluding one of the others being die 1)
21 where die 3 is 1 (Ex others being dice 1 or 2)
15 die 4
10 die 5
6 die 6
3 die 7
1 die 8 is 1, no duplicates

120 chances of EXACTLY 3 ones

Hmmm Excell and open office have functions to calc this - will look later
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Techno on 30 July 2012, 02:41:36 PM
This is starting to make my brain hurt lots ! ;D :-/

Think there must be lots more combinations than 120 for 3 ones LH. ?
True...there would be 36 combos where the first dice is one....and two others are ones as well....But only if we ignore the 5 (numbers 2 to 6) possible variations on each of the other seven dice. 8-}
Don't we need to take those into account as well ? 

Cheers - Confused of Wales




Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Leon on 30 July 2012, 02:55:22 PM
I think one of us should grab a handful of dice, a pen and a piece of paper, and get rolling!
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Techno on 30 July 2012, 03:09:43 PM
What ?......
No....Write all the combinations down....All sixty and a half million of them.

I'll start....
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1.....

Cheers - Phil  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Orcs on 30 July 2012, 03:35:48 PM
I think this post is in the wrong section.

This maths is hardly "FUN STUFF" unless of course you havve masochistic tendancies ;D ;D
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: sebigboss79 on 30 July 2012, 07:39:00 PM
Or the original poster rofls about all of us actually rolling dices like there is no tomorrow...
;D
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: nikharwood on 30 July 2012, 09:58:06 PM
Quote from: Just a few Orcs on 30 July 2012, 03:35:48 PM
I think this post is in the wrong section.

This maths is hardly "FUN STUFF" unless of course you havve masochistic tendancies ;D ;D

(http://image.spreadshirt.com/image-server/v1/products/19355541/views/1,width=378,height=378,appearanceId=1/Math-is-Fun-T-shirt.png)
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Derek H on 31 July 2012, 09:59:35 AM
Using Pascall's Triangle you can work out that the probability of rolling exactly three ones on ten D6s is

120 q7 * p3

Where p is  probability of rolling a 1 = 1/6
And q is the probability of rolling a number other than a 1 = 5/6


That's about 2.15%  
Title: Re: Help me with some Dice chances.
Post by: Leon on 31 July 2012, 05:14:56 PM
Quote from: Derek H on 31 July 2012, 09:59:35 AM
Using Pascall's Triangle you can work out that the probability of rolling exactly three ones on ten D6s is

120 q7 * p3

Where p is  probability of rolling a 1 = 1/6
And q is the probability of rolling a number other than a 1 = 5/6


That's about 2.15%  

:o

You lost me at "Using..."

:D