Lots of American tourists in the UK at present. Free Nesters enjoying the strong US dollar.
I wonder if this has increased US sales with Pendraken ?
Against that the raw material is not mined in Durham, so is there an increase in the white metal costs as the Pound falls?
We have a good coterie of European gamers in the forum. Are they buying up before the unknown of a potential no deal Brexit ?
I spend a week with a local Federation of Small Business. Forward planning is impossible.
Now - without bringing the toxicity of Brexit Politics into the Forum, can we have an adult discussion as to how these changes impact our hobby?
I just made an order to pick up at crisis.
Other than that, i don't really order more now as i do otherwise.
Must admit i'm a bit worried about the crisis show itself. Hope traders don't stay home. Studio miniatures already made an announcement that they want to take as much pre order as they can because they don't know how much stock they can bring to the show, and brigade models states 'if brexit allows it' next to their crisis entry in their 'upcoming shows' section.
Sales outside the EU have increased hugely this summer, August was the busiest we've ever had and it's mostly large orders from the US (as well as some larger than usual UK orders as well). The cost of the metal fluctuates quite a lot anyway so it's about the same each month. There was a spike following the vote in 2016 where it jumped about 20% in a month, but it's slowly dropped back down to a reasonable level.
As for Crisis, I'm not sure what's going to happen there. I'm sure I've read that even with a No-Deal that we're still in the customs union until January 2021 at the earliest, so the traders travelling this year and 2020 shouldn't have to worry about the VAT impact on taking their stock across any new border checks. It's more likely to be travelling delays and disruption for this year with it being so close to the Oct 31st deadline, but those should be ironed out by 2020 (you would hope!)
I hope it's not a problem but we will see.
Just to be safe, i already sent 4 pre orders out for what i need ;D
Maybe I should get my Vikings orders done while the balance remains favourable.
Quote from: FierceKitty on 10 October 2019, 10:24:16 AM
Maybe I should get my Vikings orders done while the balance remains favourable.
Buy like there is no tomorrow. The consensus is the Pound is too weak. But the traders won't budget until EU-UK relations sorted as things too uncertain.
As for Brexit. A no deal would be disastrous. The paperwork for Leon attending "Crisis" would be the same if the show were held in Moscow !
I sat last week and looked at the ATA certs, the MRN and EORI docs all needed to "export" from a non EU state into the EU.
Hmmmmm..... :-\
I can see this thread causing some arguments !
I can quite understand James' thoughts.....But I don't want to see a Pro/Anti Brexit discussion starting....It'll just cause a lot of bad feelings.
Cheers - Phil
As long as we keep it wargame related we should be fine i guess.
Had an aswer today to one of my pre orders , and again with 'if brexit allows it". All arguments aside, it's sad that our hobby can potentially suffer from this. A lot of these small scale bussinesses don't earn a lot as it stands now but just manage to float by adding a lot of hours and passion for the hobby in to it.
Like i said to the man from the preorder : politicians do politics, and we usually pay the bill!
A pal of mine owns a Wargames company with employees. He sees the weak £ as good. Overall he sees Brexit as good for his company and staff.
Quote from: Dr Dave on 10 October 2019, 08:29:58 PM
A pal of mine owns a Wargames company with employees. He sees the weak £ as good. Overall he sees Brexit as good for his company and staff.
I genuinely hope he is right - I fear he is not.
Quote from: mollinary on 10 October 2019, 08:39:47 PM
I genuinely hope he is right - I fear he is not.
I think his biggest market place is the USA.
Quote from: Techno on 10 October 2019, 04:14:26 PM
Hmmmmm..... :-
I can see this thread causing some arguments !
I can quite understand James' thoughts.....But I don't want to see a Pro/Anti Brexit discussion starting....It'll just cause a lot of bad feelings.
Cheers - Phil
As I said in the opening remarks Phil, we are not discussion the pros and cons of Brexit - just a an adult debate about how Brexit may impact wargaming.
The weak pound is not just because of Brexit, but the hassle in the Gulf and because Crude Oil is sold in dollars
James
That's absolutely fine, James.
As long as it 'stays here', as far as the discussion goes, there won't be any problem, at all.
Cheers - Phil :)
For myself, not a lot as I don't buy stuff from the US and Europe, with the shipping costs of the former always prohibitive. Plus I have my lead mountain to tide me over for a good few decades at my painting rate :D.
Quote from: Techno on 11 October 2019, 08:28:49 AM
That's absolutely fine, James.
As long as it 'stays here', as far as the discussion goes, there won't be any problem, at all.
Cheers - Phil :)
Absolutely Phil. Like the Fed Small Business Group I facilitate, we leave our "remain" and "leave" hats at the door. And focus on how decisions way beyond our control will impact on the Wargame business/hobby.
I had concerns for example, about the whitemetal that Pendraken moulds into figures. What is the country of origin? If its outside the EU or a member. Leon has clarified that the price does fluctuate, but Pendraken can't just absorb hikes in raw material. Post Brexit there may be a mega rise in paperwork to shift good to Europe.
I am also aware of Government funding to help business prep. The British Chambers of Commerce (Middlesbrough) should be able - once the politicians make the decision - to advise regarding "Crisis" and if couched as a "Trade Show to retain traction/market share in Europe" should even be able to offer fiscal assistance.
I think that's the real trouble at the moment, that nobody has any idea of what's going to happen so it's difficult to know what we need to do. We've got our EORI number in place but they've not advised of much beyond that.
Paperwork for exports is more of a hassle for large companies doing pallet sized exporting, so doesn't affect us as much. Our export agent for 99% of our packages is Royal Mail, so we would just need to provide a HS Code for whatever we're sending out. We're moving to a Royal Mail postage account in the next month as well, so that we're dealing with them directly rather than through our current franking machine. This adds an electronic record of every package sent as well, which ticks more of the boxes for exporting.
If I'm honest, I can't see it affecting a great deal in direct terms for the customers. If you're in an EU country and we leave the customs union then you'll be getting all of your products at the ex-VAT prices, saving you the 20% VAT on all your purchases. That would then be offset by whatever your internal country VAT rate is, and most of those are about the same: France 20%, Germany 19%, Belgium 21%, Spain 21%, Netherlands 21%, etc. I don't know if there are any additional handling charges for processing the parcels (like there is in the UK)? And whether they catch every package or a large number slip through? You could potentially get everything a lot cheaper if your Customs people don't check every parcel?
There may be some pricing adjustments on the postage side of things as the Royal Mail and European counterparts work out what they'll be charging each other.
Metal pricing is in $'s but fluctuates more on global market movement than currency exchanges. When the Chinese were buying up raw materials 7-8 years ago the metal prices went through the roof, but it wasn't sustainable in the long-term and they had to start offloading it again, bringing the price back down. As I mentioned above, Brexit caused an immediate 20% jump but it's come back down now and is roughly the same as it was just before the referendum.
So, best case is that they figure it all out and nothing really changes in terms of the customs union and exporting. Worst case is that EU customers will have to pay an internal VAT + handling fee on their purchases and that our shipping charges might need to go up slightly.
(In the latter, smaller wargames businesses will suffer a lot more as they don't have the VAT to knock off for EU customers. Their existing customers will have to start paying internal VAT + handling on top of the current prices.)
I believe handling price for customs in belgium is 7€. But small things usually get left alone. They check big ones though, i found that out when i bought a second hand cadian army from the USA.
But by some chance the bill in there stated 100€ instead of 400 (like i paid) and so taxes were minimal :P ;)
And as we speak, the mere hint of a deal - de jury customs border on the Irish border, de facto border Irish sea - and the Pound picks up and heads North.
The DUP won't like it, but the maths at Westminster are changed. They already conceded a Single Market check in the Irish Sea, so on a dodgy wicket.
N Ireland might even get a second referendum - "Do you wish to remain in the EU customs union?" Yes/No :)
Quote from: Sunray on 11 October 2019, 03:57:55 PM
N Ireland might even get a second referendum - "Do you wish to remain in the EU customs union?" Yes/No :)
No doubt followed by "Which union would you like to be a part of: UK or EU. Pick one."
If the NI Federation of SB get what we lobby for we will have the best of both in an Enhanced Economic Zone. https://fsb.org.uk>doc>default-source-fsb-org-uk-northernireland. The Six County Area of Northern Ireland would have Free Port Status.
For example :
I set up a NI company and buy wargame figures from Leon - no duty tax other than UK VAT which I reclaim from HMRC
I simply prime them. They are now a Product of N Ireland (poni)
I can then sell to Peter and rest of EU without customs duty or paper work as long as bearing the PONI stamp.
Meantime the UK subvention (£10 billion?) under the Barnett Formula gives us NHS, free prescriptions and all other UK benefits.
Like I said - best of both. :)
Interesting.... What's the chance of that happening? Northern Ireland: Singapore of the West. Could be good.
Where's Clib when you need him?
Quote from: Sunray on 12 October 2019, 08:28:00 AM
I can then sell to Peter and rest of EU without customs duty or paper work as long as bearing the PONI stamp.
Quote from: mmcv on 12 October 2019, 08:42:36 AM
Interesting.... What's the chance of that happening? Northern Ireland: Singapore of the West. Could be good.
And then, like with cheap products from china, we claim we didn't get them and ask our money back via paypal ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Quote from: petercooman on 12 October 2019, 10:53:48 AM
And then, like with cheap products from china, we claim we didn't get them and ask our money back via paypal ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
That would be dishonest.
Quote from: John Cook on 12 October 2019, 11:07:27 AM
That would be dishonest.
Just a joke, wouldn't do it if it's not necesarry. Had to do it on one occasion though, really didn't get what i ordered. China is a bit hit and miss on shipping.
As I understand it, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, all goods traded between the UK and the EU after 23:00 on 31 October 2019 will be subject to the same requirements as if the UK were a non-EU 3rd Party Country, with which the EU has no trading agreement.
Duty-free trading between the UK and EU will cease and EU tariffs will be applied to UK goods. Customs and other declarations will be required by the EU and all other EU rules and regulations for non-EU countries will apply to movements between the EU and the UK.
HMRC will apply tariffs to all imports from the EU as it sees fit.
This will make UK exports more expensive for EU customers and EU imports more expensive for UK customers.
This does not take into account a potentially devalued pound.
Quote from: mmcv on 12 October 2019, 08:42:36 AM
Interesting.... What's the chance of that happening? Northern Ireland: Singapore of the West. Could be good.
The Irish Gov OK'ed, the EU need more discussion, the Brits interested .....Only the DUP whinge about deviation from UK customs and standards. But with the changing maths in the Division lobbies......that can be circumvented....
Hence the idea of a referendum.
Quote from: John Cook on 12 October 2019, 11:34:30 AM
As I understand it, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, all goods traded between the UK and the EU after 23:00 on 31 October 2019 will be subject to the same requirements as if the UK were a non-EU 3rd Party Country, with which the EU has no trading agreement.
Duty-free trading between the UK and EU will cease and EU tariffs will be applied to UK goods. Customs and other declarations will be required by the EU and all other EU rules and regulations for non-EU countries will apply to movements between the EU and the UK.
HMRC will apply tariffs to all imports from the EU as it sees fit.
This will make UK exports more expensive for EU customers and EU imports more expensive for UK customers.
This does not take into account a potentially devalued pound.
I already paid for my crisis pre orders, so does that count as before 31 october? Even if i receive them after that :P
Quote from: petercooman on 12 October 2019, 12:42:40 PM
I already paid for my crisis pre orders, so does that count as before 31 october? Even if i receive them after that :P
Not sure but I suspect it will if it enters the country after the deadline. I buy quite a lot of stuff from the US and depending on the value declared by the sender you have to pay VAT and Duty on imported goods. Unless some kind of deal is struck with the EU I assume the same regime will apply to goods imported from the EU. If it does do the charges are collected by Royal Mail before delivery, and they make an additional charge for the 'service'. Presently gifts under £39 and other imports worth less than £15 from outside the EU are not taxed and do not have duty applied. I presume this will apply to imports from the EU after Brexit.
I have found that, generally, anything around a value of £30 gets through, gift or otherwise. I suspect that it costs too much to collect the tax and duty such a small amount attracts.
Quote from: petercooman on 12 October 2019, 12:42:40 PM
I already paid for my crisis pre orders, so does that count as before 31 october? Even if i receive them after that :P
I can confirm that tariff incurs on and at the date of entry into the State/country/trading community in question. In this case the EU, but PEASE Peter, hold fire until we see what deal emerges in the current talks.
I fully take your point Peter that a "Crisis" collection saves on postage. The goods are technically yours, but the tariff - if there is one - hangs on the deal.
Perhaps Leon, it would be prudent to advise European customers who order for a Crisis collection that the quoted price is based on EU status quo and in a "worst case scenario" there may be a tariff ? They can then choose to (a) await the Brexit outcome or (b) incur postage for immediate delivery.
I am just back from the Oireachtas. Not a Government TD in sight. They have all been muzzled and hacks were asking me if I knew anything about how the DUP were responding. The senators I dined with, confided that the news blackout was a very positive sign. A lot hangs on the more Eastern State members of the 27.
But what I can say is that by the Brussels summit in
four days time the prospect of a orderly deal will be leaked. If its definitely on, collect at Crisis, if in doubt, count the beans between postage and the tariff .
I hope this intel is of some help, and thanks to Phil for letting the thread run.
Well, i must say that i have my pre determined budget for crisis, like i always do. I write up my list of what i want to get there ( i'm pretty organised on that matter actually, have it all written and counted out already). I kept a 'spare' amount of that budget for the case extra import fees need to be paid.
I normally pay as much as i can on the day itself, but this time around i made all the payments up front. This means that :
-I know what i spent already
- the traders get a fair price.
I know every one likes a good deal when buying something, but should the pound fluctuate/drop quite a bit in the week after the end of october, and that could affect price quite a bit. I wouldn't feel good personally if i paid on the day, knowing the trader would lose money on that sale.
Hullo,
Just checked from the Finnish customs site what the worst case scenario entails. Cast metal miniatures are a special sub category of toys, and in Finland there is a 4,7 percent tariff on them. So it would be 24% vat and 4,7% tariff, calculated based on the cost of figures and postage.
However, the handy self service tool for declaring and paying for your goods does not have this subcategory and it only offers the "models" main one where tariff is 0%. Go figure...
Anyway, I suppose anyone suffering from severe lack of quality figures will not be put off by this possible change in end price.
Cheers,
Aksu
Quote from: petercooman on 13 October 2019, 08:24:36 AM
Well, i must say that i have my pre determined budget for crisis, like i always do. I write up my list of what i want to get there ( i'm pretty organised on that matter actually, have it all written and counted out already). I kept a 'spare' amount of that budget for the case extra import fees need to be paid.
I normally pay as much as i can on the day itself, but this time around i made all the payments up front. This means that :
-I know what i spent already
- the traders get a fair price.
I know every one likes a good deal when buying something, but should the pound fluctuate/drop quite a bit in the week after the end of october, and that could affect price quite a bit. I wouldn't feel good personally if i paid on the day, knowing the trader would lose money on that sale.
Peter,
I have a sense you will come out OK.
1. You bought at a time when the pound was weak. Watch it climb as City confidence and shares recover with the hint of a deal.
2. There is a fair wind gathering behind a Brexit Deal. If Ireland and UK agree, it will be hard for the rest of EU to veto. How much of an Enhanced Economic zone the North Irish get is another issue- but the deal will be sweet to compensate for the Irish Backstop rebranded.
3. With a deal, we enter the calmer waters of the "No change transition period" - at least two years- and the Crisis is no longer a crisis for you. Leon and wargamers in general.
James
Quote from: John Cook on 12 October 2019, 11:34:30 AM
As I understand it, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, all goods traded between the UK and the EU after 23:00 on 31 October 2019 will be subject to the same requirements as if the UK were a non-EU 3rd Party Country, with which the EU has no trading agreement.
Found it, the Withdrawal Agreement states that the UK will still be treated as a member state for purposes of the customs union and trade, through a transitional period ending on 31st December 2020. So there won't be any tariffs or VAT implications on any goods until the beginning of 2021.
Source: https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/key-eu-policy-areas/brexit_en
The Withdrawal Agreement ensures a smooth winding-down of current EU-UK arrangements during a transition period that lasts until 31 December 2020. The EU will treat the UK as if it were a Member State during the transition.
The transition period can be extended once by a newly established EU-UK Joint Committee, as long as it decides to do so before 1 July 2020.
During the transition, all EU legislation, rules and court decisions will continue to apply to and in the UK as if it were a Member State.
This means the UK will continue to participate in the EU Customs Union and the Single Market (with all four freedoms) and all Union policies.
Any changes to EU legislation or rules will automatically apply to the UK.
Of course, all this assumes an agreement, and (I assume, therefore) would not apply if there is a no deal Brexit?
Quote from: mollinary on 13 October 2019, 06:13:42 PM
Of course, all this assumes an agreement, and (I assume, therefore) would not apply if there is a no deal Brexit?
If we end up with a no-deal Brexit then everything's up in the air sadly and there's no definitive information anywhere. There could still be a transitional period agreed in theory and it would seem rather sensible to do so. I can't see all of the various Customs officials having everything in place to suddenly start dealing with millions of packages overnight so it would be a horrendous strain on those people and services. I guess we'll find out very soon!
Quote from: Leon on 13 October 2019, 06:47:40 PM
If we end up with a no-deal Brexit then everything's up in the air sadly and there's no definitive information anywhere. There could still be a transitional period agreed in theory and it would seem rather sensible to do so. I can't see all of the various Customs officials having everything in place to suddenly start dealing with millions of packages overnight so it would be a horrendous strain on those people and services. I guess we'll find out very soon!
Indeed! Fingers crossed.
Quote from: mollinary on 13 October 2019, 06:13:42 PM
Of course, all this assumes an agreement, and (I assume, therefore) would not apply if there is a no deal Brexit?
Indeed it does. That is why, as I understand it, there is all this talk about WTO terms if there is 'no deal'. I wonder how history will view all this?
As an aside, went to mini europa yesterday, and they had a littkle protestor diorama next to the house of parliament
(https://i.imgur.com/s3Zrcao.jpg)
also, never noticed this liitle guy in a boat
(https://i.imgur.com/jN22Twj.jpg)
The House and Holmes, nice. (Notice that you seem to be giving one or both the finger. :P )
Quote from: d_Guy on 14 October 2019, 03:04:01 PM
The House and Holmes, nice. (Notice that you seem to be giving one or both the finger. :P )
Yes poor camera work there ;D
It has been pointed out that anyone wearing a hat like that in Victorian London would have been pelted in the street. No doubt why his author didn't make him wear it in town.
Taken advantage of the relative currency values to get a Viking army (if only to show Lee what they actually looked like!). Helmetless female rabble against 16th century cavalry armies my toenail!