Covid-19

[Westmarcher]

What's happening in the south of Italy, barbarian? France, Austria, the north of Italy are in our news but somehow 'miraculously' the south is not mentioned.

Personal interest (dilemma): we booked a week in Sorrento in April before all of this became news.  

[barbarian]

Don't go.
Cases around Rome, Naples, in Puglia...
This will be everywhere.
Don't go.

[Westmarcher]

Thanks, barbarian. Current information for the remainder of Italy provided by the UK Government Foreign Travel Advice is

Across the whole of Italy, museums and cultural institutions are closed and all sporting fixtures must be played behind closed doors. Childcare facilities, schools and universities are closed until 15 March. Public and social gatherings should be avoided with cinemas, pubs and clubs closed. Restaurants and bars remain open with reduced seating.

Personally, I'd rather not go or, at least postpone our trip. Doesn't sound much of a fun holiday to me. But I'm only one of four in our party and the rest still seem to be up for it (or perhaps just 'head in the sand?'). I'll continue to monitor the situation.

[Techno]

I'd also say don't go, Davy....At least not at the moment.

A few days ago we only had two confirmed cases in Wales.....Now we've got 6.

Two today, two yesterday......All folk returning from Italy.

Apparently these last four had already put themselves into voluntary quarantine, which is something to commend them for.

Cheers - Phil

[Nick the Lemming]

You may not get the chance to go anyway Davy, the lockdown in Lombardy has just been extended to the whole of Italy.

[barbarian]

Yep, all Italy is now closed. Even to move inside, they need to fill some papers : only to work, buy groceries or getting medical cures. The police and Carabinieri will control everybody in the streets.

Don't be fooled, France will be next. Macron said it will be studied on a "case by case " bases.

But it will be everywhere.

f***.

I fear it will travel north into Europe.

You may have another month in Great-Britain, but I wouldn't count on it.

[sultanbev]

https://skwawkbox.org/2020/03/09/italy-confirms-national-lockdown-14-days-for-all-bar-essential-personnel/

Perhaps 2 weeks before England lockdown?

Mark

[Duke Speedy of Leighton]

10 days according to Newsnight

[sultanbev]

Just occurred to me, a 2-week national shut-down 2 weeks from has Salute wargames show towards the end of it. Traders and organisers may need to confer.

Mark

[barbarian]

They don't give masks to anybody in Italy. Basically, people will infect each other's at work. 
The shutdown will not last two weeks. It will be at least a month. If not more.
I highly doubt Salute will happen.
I hope I am wrong but I don't see why I would be.

[Leon]

Traders and organisers may need to confer.

Already happening behind the scenes, Hammerhead is going ahead as normal and Partizan have said that they'll cancel if things haven't improved by April 2nd I believe.  Salute is a much larger beast and the Warlords wouldn't be able to make that decision themselves.  It would need to be a government ban on large gatherings I'd think, with some guarantees that insurance companies will stump up for the financial implications.

[sultanbev]

"The shutdown will not last two weeks. It will be at least a month. If not more.
I highly doubt Salute will happen.
I hope I am wrong but I don't see why I would be."

Yes, I agree, the exponential function in full flow
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/03/01/our-second-greatest-shortcoming/

PS, see you at Hammerhead 

Mark

[Techno]

Here's the 'league table' for Europe, as of yesterday. 

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

I fear Yann may be right in it increasing in Northern Europe.....It looks like it's getting fairly 'iffy' already.
Can't say what I think is going to happen in the UK in the next couple of weeks.

Wouldn't be surprised if the top 5 in that table will start seeing 'lock-downs' within the next two to four weeks.

Some good news, in that China seems to be getting on top of its outbreak.
Davy.....The decision seems to have been taken out of your hands, for the time being.

Stay well, Gang.

Cheers - Phil

[Sandinista]

Why has Italy been the hardest hit so far?

Ian

[Techno]

I don't think we know, for certain, Ian.

I believe the theory is that it was circulating in parts of the population there for a good while before it was 'spotted'.

Cheers - Phil