Good news for a change.

Started by Techno II, 02 December 2020, 08:03:02 AM

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Ithoriel

Quote from: Ray Rivers on 03 December 2020, 09:45:03 PM
Personally I don't understand why everyone needs to be vaccinated. Seems a bit over wrought to me.

I totally discount the number of "infections" as this number is totally unreliable. Many, many millions have almost certainly already had the illness and the majority of them did not get a test. The numbers I rely on is hospitalizations and deaths.

The priority should be (and I understand it is) to protect the vulnerable. Once this objective is achieved and hospitalizations and deaths drop like a rock, then nature should take care of the rest.

Estimated world population 7.7 billion. Estimated Covid-19 infections worldwide 65 million. That's less than 1% of the global population who might have immunity.

"Everyone" won't wind up vaccinated for a myriad of reasons, good, bad and, frankly, verging on the insane.

We simply need the bulk of the human population of the planet to develop immunity. Vaccination is somewhat more humane than letting everybody get it and seeing who survives.
There are 100 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who can work from incomplete data

Norm

The number of infections is an early indicator of the infection rate within a certain area, say a county and allows a faster response to locally escalate or de-escalate measures (Tiers). Hospitalisation and deaths are a more precise measurement for making comparisons, but both come further down the line to infection counting and have the disadvantage of having 'lag' time.

I am guessing that the infrastructure will develop to better administer the vaccine at faster rates over time ..... there is an economic imperative that will focus attention on getting there. Throwing money at this part of the problem will probably be more cost effective than throwing it elsewhere.


Orcs

03 December 2020, 10:13:07 PM #32 Last Edit: 03 December 2020, 10:15:39 PM by Orcs
Quote from: Ray Rivers on 03 December 2020, 09:45:03 PM
Personally I don't understand why everyone needs to be vaccinated. Seems a bit over wrought to me.


This disease  in a large number of cases is a particularly nasty disease to get, with potential long term life changing effects. I It has caused some 50,000+ people in this country to die in a very unpleasant way.  

Those not vaccinated will have the potential to infect those where the vaccine did not take, those who are at the end of the effective period the vaccination works for. (which we have no idea how long this is ) . Or others who were not given the vaccine.

Being young fit and healthy is no guarantee you won't die, or pass it on to someone who almost certainly will.

Getting everybody vaccinated is the only way to try and get rid of the disease or at least ensure that most people survive it .

The cost of vaccinating everybody (around £3.5 Billion) is about 10% of what the furlough scheme cost. Plus the impact on jobs, industry etc.

The cynics are right nine times out of ten. -Mencken, H. L.

Life is not a matter of holding good cards, but of playing a poor hand well. - Robert Louis Stevenson

Raider4

I saw one of the medical experts saying he'd get his elderly mother vaccinated in flash, which gave me flashbacks to seeing a chinless wonder force-feeding his daughter a beef burger at the height of the mad cow disease scare.

Must admit, I have completely lost any faith that any of our political masters even know what the truth is, let alone whether they are telling it or not.

Ray Rivers

We must remember that there is a human rights convention which states (more or less) that to perform any medical procedure on a person, you must have that person's consent.

Here in Spain, in a recent poll, 55% of the folks responding said they want to wait until they know what the secondary effects of the vaccine are. Most of the folks I talk to believe that the number of infections is at least 10 times higher than reported.

Meanwhile, there are indications that areas which suffered heavily at the beginning of the pandemia (London for example) have seen marked deceases in the number of deaths; which some are seeing as an indication of herd immunity.

As an ex-Naval Aviator, I have learned that when everyone is panicking around you, that is the time to maintain calm. I believe that somewhere around March the worst will have past... just in time to save our economies.

Will I get the vaccine? Yep. Does everyone need it? Nope.

Heedless Horseman

Strange that we don't hear very much about China? Putting the 'possible' 'conspiracy theories' and 'blame' to one side... THEY have had much more time to assess and develop responses... yet the media concentrate on 'our' troubles and treatments..'warned off', maybe?   :o
(40 Yrs ago. I should have been an Angry Young Man... but wasn't.
Now... I am an Old B******! )  ;)

Ithoriel

We need at least 70% of the worlds population to have immunity through infection or vaccination. Even if infection rates were 10 times higher (unlikely) it still only takes us to 8% of the planet''s population. Only four or five billion or so to go.

I don't see life returning to something like normal until 2022 or beyond. I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.

The Chinese experience is illuminating but not something we could emulate. A Chinese citizen I know was rash enough to try to sneak out to the shops in contravention of local restrictions. They were intercepted by the police, dragged back home and denounced to their neighbours as a threat to them all. Effective as an anti-virus measure but it requires a level of surveillance and conformity the UK population would not want to emulate, I think.
There are 100 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who can work from incomplete data

FierceKitty

I lived in China for two months. It was the longest twenty years of my life. And I grew up in a police state!
I don't drink coffee to wake up. I wake up to drink coffee.

Lord Kermit of Birkenhead

Your masjor problem there Alexander was not being Chinese, they are even more arrogent than the Boers, or English
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FierceKitty

Well, I'm married to one (by origins, not passport; three generations away); the stock can be friendly. It was the utter grey mediocrity of life in modern China I hated.
I don't drink coffee to wake up. I wake up to drink coffee.

Raider4

Quote from: sean66 on 03 December 2020, 01:01:39 PM
but I read somewhere that you have no course of redress if you suffer side effects  :-

Well, that's not terribly reassuring.

Quote from: Ithoriel on 03 December 2020, 02:00:12 PM
I am glad the vaccines are proving successful and keen to get vaccinated when my turn comes but also glad not to be first in line. After all, the early bird may get the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese :)

Same here, not keen to be at the front of the queue for this.

I'm also finding it a bit . . . disconcerting . . . how anyone who asks a simple question, or expresses even a little doubt or apprehension is immediately being branded as some sort of raving lunatic anti-vaxxer, lumped in with flat-earthers and holocaust-deniers.

Orcs

Quote from: Raider4 on 07 December 2020, 05:30:41 PM
I'm also finding it a bit . . . disconcerting . . . how anyone who asks a simple question, or expresses even a little doubt or apprehension is immediately being branded as some sort of raving lunatic anti-vaxxer, lumped in with flat-earthers and holocaust-deniers.

Are you telling me the Earths not Flat?

The cynics are right nine times out of ten. -Mencken, H. L.

Life is not a matter of holding good cards, but of playing a poor hand well. - Robert Louis Stevenson

Raider4

Quote from: Orcs on 07 December 2020, 06:09:03 PM
Are you telling me the Earths not Flat?

Well one of them might not be . . .

flamingpig0

Quote from: Raider4 on 07 December 2020, 05:30:41 PM
Well, that's not terribly reassuring.

Same here, not keen to be at the front of the queue for this.

I'm also finding it a bit . . . disconcerting . . . how anyone who asks a simple question, or expresses even a little doubt or apprehension is immediately being branded as some sort of raving lunatic anti-vaxxer, lumped in with flat-earthers and holocaust-deniers.

Humanity has lost the art of nuance
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 H.P. Lovecraft

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My six degrees of separation includes Osama Bin Laden, Hitler, and Wendy James

fred.

Quote from: flamingpig0 on 07 December 2020, 08:04:03 PM
Humanity has lost the art of nuance

Indeed.

It's too easy to be against things, and too easy to take (or assume) polarising view points.

I'm massively pro vaccines. But I'm also very aware that version 1.0 of anything isn't often the best.
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