Current Climate of Wargaming?

[petercooman]

Also, i am very sceptical about game IP in the First place. I think you have to get lucky, as big IP not always means big sales. Look at the terminator genesys game from warlord games. They even priced it at 20 £ for the starter once. I don't think that was a great succes, and it's based on a BIG franchise.

[Techno]

For me......

There probably ARE too many 'little' companies, which do dilute 'things'.
As Leon mentions above, there are those who have tried to start making a living out of their hobby. A lot of them don't seem to realise how much money (AND TIME) you have to expend before you even break even.....Some, with their heads screwed firmly in place, look for niche markets...and some, I believe, will do very nicely.

(Much easier at the 'larger scales' because of the profit margins...But they still have to be careful.)

I'm far too old and lazy to even think of starting a company myself......But a few years ago I reckoned I would need something like £30,000 - £40,000 set by, to live on, before everything was up and running, and starting to make me a 'living'......Basically because of the time lag in making whole ranges of models, getting them cast up...and then getting a decent customer base....and then selling enough of the figures.

In the past, Leon has mentioned he usually needs to sell about 300 of each of the figures we designers make.

In certain cases, WITH a decent customer base...an absolute piece of wee - wee...With others.....I'm sure I'll be pushing up the daisies before Leon gets close to making back the money he's already paid me.....Then he's got to spend time and MORE money making the moulds and casting the wee chaps.

I've known (Ahem) 'gentlemen' who have basically conned investors by, just pointing out the profit made on a single figure......."Hey.....the metal cost on this figure is 'X' pence, and we sell it for 'Y' pounds." (Don't worry about the design and manufacturing costs.)......These companies make very nice figures for a year or two, then fold owing LOTS to various 'contractors'.

I'll be back later.....I haven't finished yet....Time to do 'Brunch' and then go and repair some fence rails.

Cheers - Phil.

[Leon]

Many hobby based industries exist due to owners not taking a liveable wage, relying on partners incomes to subsidise their hobby business. Not a viable business model and one that has a negative impact upon those trying to make a living out of their hobby, as pricing does not reflect real costs.

This is very true, we've discussed this in the past on the Forum a few times.  We don't make a liveable wage from Pendraken, even after 25 years.  We pay the casting guys a reasonable hourly rate but there's not enough left each month for us to take a proper salary.  We do OK, it's probably about minimum wage but nowhere near the national average salary.  To get a comfortable living from this we'd need to put prices up or stop getting new ranges produced, neither of which is appealable to the customer base.

The GW bubble has burst a bit (though I notice stock prices are at an all time high) and I wonder where next for these people.

A year ago I would have agreed but their recent financial report came as a big shock, turnover up by 10's of millions and profits up considerably.  Their recent releases and strategy have paid dividends, quite literally!  If they've taken an extra £20 million in one year, that's a huge amount of money not going to the smaller guys.  That's the equivalent of £50,000 in sales being taken off 400 different companies, imagine what that would do to the average wargames business?

A while ago there was much interest in Pendraken producing a Marching band.  From the picture it required 10 different masters.  I wonder how many packs they have actually sold and how long it will take to cover their costs?

I think we've shifted about 50 packs of those so we've not recouped the money on them yet.  They're a nice little set though and it's nice that we can do odd things like that now and then.

I'm far too old and lazy to even think of starting a company myself......But a few years ago I reckoned I would need something like £30,000 - £40,000 set by, to live on, before everything was up and running, and starting to make me a 'living'......Basically because of the time lag in making whole ranges of models, getting them cast up...and then getting a decent customer base....and then selling enough of the figures.

I think you're spot on there, but this is something that people aren't having to worry about as much with the advent of Kickstarter.  There are so many companies running entirely on continual KS's now, and for me they're playing with someone else's money.  All of the risk is removed for them so I think some of them operate under a false impression of how hard you need to work in this industry.  Some of them really need to look at their sales and ask themselves whether they would still be in business if KS didn't exist.  KS serves a purpose but if that's your main revenue stream then you're stuck in a cycle of continual investment for the next KS, having to discount your product heavily to get the backers, then surviving the sales lull while you work out your next campaign.  That's very unsteady ground to be on in our niche industry.

[petercooman]

I think you're spot on there, but this is something that people aren't having to worry about as much with the advent of Kickstarter.  There are so many companies running entirely on continual KS's now, and for me they're playing with someone else's money.  All of the risk is removed for them so I think some of them operate under a false impression of how hard you need to work in this industry.  Some of them really need to look at their sales and ask themselves whether they would still be in business if KS didn't exist.  KS serves a purpose but if that's your main revenue stream then you're stuck in a cycle of continual investment for the next KS, having to discount your product heavily to get the backers, then surviving the sales lull while you work out your next campaign.  That's very unsteady ground to be on in our niche industry.

Kickstarter is a mixed blessing i believe. I think it's good that it exists, because it saves people from a lot of misery. I am not talking about the succesfull ones, but about the ones that fail. Knowing from the start that your idea is not going to work can save you a lot of problems later on.

I do hate companies putting in one kickstarter after another though. Take mantic for example. I love mantic games, because they make some nice games and are pretty affordable. I went heavily into deadzone and i enjoy playing kings of war. But i have never backed any of their kickstarters. I feel that after one or two kickstarters you should be able to handle the next new product by yourself or you are not a healthy company. I get the feeling that it all goes well for the moment, but when one kickstarter will go wrong, what will they do? How will they cope? Not to mention the logistic issues that come with it. I once had 3-4 month wait from them on a small order because they were 'up to their heads' in orders. Apparently they were shipping the dungeon saga kickstarter packets, and combined with poor stock management on an item i bought, this meant they had not enough time to sort it out.

Letting your 'regular' customers wait because you are managing a kickstarter is a big no-no or me.I only ordered from them once ever since, instead preferring to buy their stuff from online retailers where i am sure they get their stock right.

I still buy their product so all is well, but do they turn the same profit if i buy discounted from a retailer instead of directly through them? I think not!

[gizmok24]

Hey all.

For me the way things are going is worrying having got introduced into wargaming through GW as a young teen I only ever really gamed in 28mm as I got older the constant price hikes and everything turned me off from gaming and I stopped altogether, a few years ago I came back and now I only game really in 10mm scale and have interests in some other niche companies for RPG figures the thing is with the huge companies safe as they have a monopoly on the market I worry about the future of wargaming in smaller scales or for the rule sets and company's we love.

[Ithoriel]

I played my first board wargame in 1962, my first figure wargame in 1965 and my first computer wargame in 1985 and I don't remember a time when there were so many figures, board games or computer games for wargamers to choose from. Which is a good thing in terms finding things you want but surely has to reduce the spend per producer.

Gaming in all it's aspects seems to go from strength to strength.

Looking at my kids and their friends, there seems to be much more interest in fantasy and sci-fi than historical table top stuff. They are also hugely more likely to be playing board games than I and my friends were at that age. All of them play computer games, mainly RPGs and shoot-em-ups.

As to "Kickstarters", or more often "Indiegogos", I've backed or am backing 5, to date.

Devil Pig's "Heroes of Normandie" which was exactly what I was looking for to replace "Memoir 44" which we'd kind of played to death. Because of the experience with that I'm backing their operational level version.

Yann's "Evil Men" which came along just as I was looking for something to fill the ranks of my Warmaster Chaos army.

The revamp of the "Cortex" RPG system which I spotted just as I was about to buy the current incarnation.

A "Not-Ogre-no-sir-definitely-not-infringing-Steve-Jackson's-copyright-not-at-all" set of 6mm sci-fi vehicles where the guy suddenly realised how much work he'd be taking on and gave us our money back.

These were all things I went looking for rather than seeing the kickstarter and thinking "Ooh! Shiny!"

On the figure side, despite having more lead than any sane person should have and despite bagging up and selling my 28mm GW stuff as and when I can, I am still buying more lead than I'll ever get painted. Doh!

To me the future of wargaming looks bright, the future of individual producers maybe less so.

[jimduncanuk]

One thing I have noticed is that in the 'greying' of the hobby there are more old gits like me around.

My disposable income is not what it used to be, roughly half of what I used to earn but I spend proportionately more of it on the hobby and less on other things like wine, women and song.

[Norm]

I spend proportionately more of it on the hobby and less on other things like wine, women and song.

Stop spending money on wine and song :-)

[Chad]

My own view is that the hobby is becoming increasingly saturated. When I started in the early 70s there were fewer manufacturers, fewer scales, fewer rules and scenics were extremely limited. Historical gaming was the order of the day. Now there is far more choice across all these areas, all competing for what is probably a pool of wargamers which has not grown to the same degree and, given the prices of products, does not have the resources to invest across such a broad spectrum of suppliers. Inevitably some of these suppliers will go to the wall. Does anyone remember Lamming, Greenwood & Ball or Mikes Models?

Fantasy and SciFi can be partly explained by the fact that new gamers do not need to invest in historical research which is necessary for historical gaming, in itself costs money and would probably have to rely of 'the bank of dad' to support such costs. I suspect that the current majority of historical wargamers are greybeards like myself.

Skirmish games have arisen, in my opinion, because many 'historical' gamers have limited space and time and the appeal of small quick games, with limited investment, is very attractive.

I don't think this situation will change and would expect other small businesses to fold.

[Leman]

Mike's Models were bought out by Essex, who, as far as I'm aware, still hold the moulds and will cast to request.  I used to have a beautiful Italian Wars army using their figures but today it would probably be sold as Renaissance dwarfs.

[Poggle]

I have run a small business and understand the general factors involved. It's never easy starting a business and sustaining it thereafter. In general terms if a business makes it through the first year it's doing well. Kudos to Pendraken for passing 25 years! 

Hobby-wise I do think we are in a Golden Age, with figures and models available that I could only dream of when I began 'serious' wargaming in the early Seventies. Even so,we do seem to have reached something of a saturation point with a number of companies producing the same period in the same scales and competing for a small and declining share of the market.

I've looked at a number of kickstarter offers over the years. On the whole there have been very few I would've subscribed to. Most seem to be geared towards too much of a niche aspect of gaming for them to be of any interest to me.

The other factor is the general economic climate. Here in the US the average income has dwindled markedly over the past thirty years and it's still declining. After paying for necessities, people have too little disposable income to spend on hobbies, even one as relatively inexpensive as wargaming (seriously - check out the costs involved in golf, scuba diving, sailing etc. then compare and contrast). College graduates in particular are labouring under a horrendous burden of student loan debt, and can scarce afford to put food on the table and keep a roof over their head. If they spend money in the hobby at all it's likely to be skirmish-level games since these require fewer figures.

So in conclusion I think we will see a number of closures yet. On the whole it will probably mean a leaner hobby manufacturer base, but a core will survive. I hope Pendraken will be around to supply our needs for many years yet.

[Ithoriel]

Stop spending money on wine and song :-)

I suspect you save more stopping spending on women! :-)

[Orcs]

Mike's Models were bought out by Essex, who, as far as I'm aware, still hold the moulds and will cast to request.  I used to have a beautiful Italian Wars army using their figures but today it would probably be sold as Renaissance dwarfs.

I have several hundred Mikes models renaissance painted and about the same unpainted that I picked up about 4 years ago to "finish" the Italian Wars armies.

They have something of a cult following causing Essex to bring them back into their catalogue

[Orcs]

I suspect you save more stopping spending on women! :-)

Only if he is lucky 

[kustenjaeger]

Greetings

Some random thoughts.

1.  I haven't backed many figure Kickstarters but do back quite a lot of RPGs - mostly in PDF. 

2. From my perspective I have too many unpainted figures from too many periods. So I personally am pretty saturated.  I am also short of time. So for this year I haven't spent much on figures.  Basically filling in existing projects - so Pendraken will get some money!

3.  However I have bought some WWI biplanes - prepainted and 'skirmish' sized - with the intent of doing a few games this Autumn.  I suppose this could be an equivalent of SAGA.

4. In the past I have suggested 'specific' figures being made - in one case bearskin wearing 10mm French SYW cavalry (of which I have two regiments - Royal Cravattes and Raugrave) and in the other 20mm late war WW2 Russian infantry with SVT-40 rifles (which I happily bought when the manufacturer quickly produced some).   I thought it worked well.

5. Exchange rates in the UK are not helping unless there is a significant export market and the lack of certainty in terms of Europe is impacting UK corporate investment.   Further the potential impact of changes in tariffs also hits confidence in terms of cross border sales vis a vis the UK. 

6. This is compounded by the postage charges from the US - I've stopped ordering from the US for example.

Regards

Edward