Q of the Week - American help the deciding factor?

Started by Leon, 09 March 2010, 01:19:20 AM

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fishunter

25 March 2010, 08:38:44 AM #15 Last Edit: 25 March 2010, 10:36:21 AM by fishunter
Well when it comes to the german army outperforming the russians , why not. But since before landings in Sicily and Normandy the OKH (as in Hitler at that time) had already issued the "not one step back " order and started the "festung" defence strategy.
This removed most of the actual german military superiority(except for Kharkov early'43), which was based on better , if fewer , equipment; higher morale , if less men; and high mobility of crack units(read Grossdeutschland and such), even if most of the of the time boots and hooves where the norm for the german soldier.

When we take in account that at the high point of the war on the eastern front('43) , the russian army had about 15+ millions men under arms, bear in mind this includes all non-combatants too.
Considering aswell the fact that Germany did not start to mobilise its industry for total war before '43 (beer hall speech from Goebbels)

The OKH was quite clear over that at the onset of winter '41 their chances got slimer for every passing day that allowed the Stavka to recover ,learn,and put in action their incredibly high manpower.

Essentially the eastern front was a win or die situation from the start.The attrition rate to secure vital ressources for the reich's (war)industry,which essentially was the goal of Operation Barbarossa,  was so unsustainable in the long run that after the failure to capture the oilfields south, the war as a ressource gathering priority was lost on Germany.Add to that the bombing of Germany's industry by the british...

Then ,only men and equipment remains, some of wich , while arguably of lesser quality , the russians had plenty of.(and then some more)

In the end , i believe, Germany would have lost anyway.
Only the fool wishes to go into battle to beat someone for the satisfaction of beating someone.

Aart Brouwer

Quote from: Leon on 09 March 2010, 01:19:20 AM
Would we have still won WWII without the help of America?

The short answer probably is: You wouldn't have, but the Russians would.

You opened a can of worms indeed. The long answer is far too long for a wargaming forum. I am always struck by the economy of intellectual scale among wargamers. They have amazingly detailed knowledge of, say, the inner workings of the Springfield M1903A4, but when it comes to the larger picture they will just as easily maintain that 'Roosevelt was an idiot' or 'WWII came about 'cause Hitler was a vegetarian'.

Cheers,
Aart
Sadly no longer with us - RIP (1958-2013)

"No, I do not have Orcs, Riders of Rohan, Dark Elves, Skaven, Kroot Mercenaries Battle Tech, HeroClix, Gangs of Mega-City One or many-horned f****** genetic-mechanoid arse-faced pigmen from the Purple Pustule of Tharg T bloody M." (Harry Pearson, Achtung Schweinehund!)

Kebabman

Quote from: Aart Brouwer on 25 March 2010, 08:55:26 AM
Quote from: Leon on 09 March 2010, 01:19:20 AM
Would we have still won WWII without the help of America?

The short answer probably is: You wouldn't have, but the Russians would.

You opened a can of worms indeed. The long answer is far too long for a wargaming forum. I am always struck by the economy of intellectual scale among wargamers. They have amazingly detailed knowledge of, say, the inner workings of the Springfield M1903A4, but when it comes to the larger picture they will just as easily maintain that 'Roosevelt was an idiot' or 'WWII came about 'cause Hitler was a vegetarian'.

Cheers,
Aart

Sadly Aart I would have to agree.
Professor of the bleedin obvious.

Leon

Quote from: Aart Brouwer on 25 March 2010, 08:55:26 AM
You opened a can of worms indeed. The long answer is far too long for a wargaming forum. I am always struck by the economy of intellectual scale among wargamers. They have amazingly detailed knowledge of, say, the inner workings of the Springfield M1903A4, but when it comes to the larger picture they will just as easily maintain that 'Roosevelt was an idiot' or 'WWII came about 'cause Hitler was a vegetarian'.

Haha!

There are some interesting points being brought up here.  I never knew the production scale/output of the Russians, or the importance of the Americans defending the Atlantic to allow equipment to reach Britain, so this is all good stuff.
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Warmachine

Quote'WWII came about 'cause Hitler was a vegetarian'.


LOL  ;D

And me think it was because he was homosexual.....I read this in somewhere some time ago. And i went dooo!, the whole leather thing, hands in the air, and little blond boys was kind of a clue :P

Jubilation T Cornpone

Interesting. What in that case happens in Tunisia without the US? No invasion of Sicily or the Italian mainland. In that case what happens with the Italians? With no US involvement (does that include not receiving the Grant, Stuart and Sheman?) do the Brits lose the middle east? Ouch!

Hurley

Well lets put this up for a talk eh? A little fun thinking. 

Take these as a understood condition:

No US involvement.

1.
a)What equipment wouldn't the British have?   
b)What tanks where made fully in Britain? 
c)What Planes where made fully in Britain?
d)Where did the UK get fuel?

2. What stopped the dessert fox?


3. What stopped the eastern advance? I would like to see what the time line is like for it and actions by non-Russians to see if this effected the Germans.

4.
A)Would japan have been able to attack Russia?
B)Could Russia fight a war on to fronts?
C)Would there be a chance of a early war win like the Germans had until Russia moved it factories?   

I'll try and answer myself. (with proof from the net)
warning up salt amounts when talking to this person.

Hurley

Ok well I went to wiki first and found that well the German actually out produced the Russians for most of the war. This is because the Russians had to move there factories after Operation Barbarossa in the Summer 1941.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Front_%28World_War_II%29#Industrial_output

There is one other interesting thing a found out, the Russians where running out of people. "As the Soviet Union's manpower reserves ran low from 1943 onwards, the great Soviet offensives had to depend more on equipment and less on the expenditure of lives."


This leads me to an interesting question could Austria fight Japan without help from anyone, cause Japan would have unopposed rule of the south pacific water ways.

If Austria couldn't fight off Japan, Japan would be free to start and eat Russia from the other side. This would have been a large front war meaning bigger then the front in western Russia so the Germans would have an easier time. India would have been in the fight at this point so lets say 1/4 of the Russian forces are used to fight off Japan.

So lets simplify this out.

Russia Produced: ~24,000 Tanks and Self-propelled Guns in 42 and 43 (wiki)
Germany & allies not japan: ~10,500 in 42 and 20,000 in 43.

Lets say 1/4 of these numbers are sent off to fight japan and 1/4 of them don't get made cause the lend-lease does not happen. (please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease)

IF the Germans where still fighting the Russians in mid 43 and holding there own then without having to fight D-day, so more troops to the eastern front.  I believe Germans would have pushed harder to get bombers into range of the Urals based factories. With less men and less factories I believe Russia would have lost.   

Hurley
 
warning up salt amounts when talking to this person.

17-21l

Gentlemen you have simply forgotten 1 factor - British spunk - the Bosche simply dont like it up em!!- Americans indeed!! where were they when we really needed them in 39 (just like 1914???) No Sir - the British Empire payed dearly for being the last man standing against Hitler and his Hun- we payed with our Empire when it were all put to bed.
Supplies from America?? - What else would an Englishman need but a tin of Bully Beef and a Lee Enfield? - good old Tommy Atkins.

Joking apart - Im married to a German (met her in 84 when posted to Munster) and knowing Germans and the German way - we needed all the help we could get - and rightly needed to rid the world of the Regime. Could we have done without the yanks? - who knows, just thank the lord for the English channel or it would have all been over after Dunkirk, old Uncle Adolf would have took Britain in the wink of an eye, didnt have much waiting on the other side did we?

Bless everyone who fought in the war, whichever side. Its only after youve been a soldier that you realise soldiers only do their duty - whatever it is- and war brings some very strange situations and feelings.  My mates still in the Regiment tell of many tales in Afghan- no ta! - God bless
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Aart Brouwer

QuoteIF the Germans where still fighting the Russians in mid 43 and holding there own then without having to fight D-day, so more troops to the eastern front.  I believe Germans would have pushed harder to get bombers into range of the Urals based factories. With less men and less factories I believe Russia would have lost.   

Hurley

With all due respect for your Wiki-Fu, Hurley, I have to say your scenario looks more like a 'whatever' than a 'what if'.

I think our friend 17-21| has it when he says that war is full of surprises, mostly unpleasant ones, and that WII by itself has been 'interesting' enough to discourage such fancy speculation. I for one am deeply grateful for the fact that we can now indulge in this nonsense we call 'reenactment' without having to face any real consequences.

Cheers,
Aart
Sadly no longer with us - RIP (1958-2013)

"No, I do not have Orcs, Riders of Rohan, Dark Elves, Skaven, Kroot Mercenaries Battle Tech, HeroClix, Gangs of Mega-City One or many-horned f****** genetic-mechanoid arse-faced pigmen from the Purple Pustule of Tharg T bloody M." (Harry Pearson, Achtung Schweinehund!)

fishunter

Quote from: Hurley on 03 April 2010, 08:47:48 PM
Ok well I went to wiki first and found that well the German actually out produced the Russians for most of the war. This is because the Russians had to move there factories after Operation Barbarossa in the Summer 1941.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Front_%28World_War_II%29#Industrial_output

There is one other interesting thing a found out, the Russians where running out of people. "As the Soviet Union's manpower reserves ran low from 1943 onwards, the great Soviet offensives had to depend more on equipment and less on the expenditure of lives."


This leads me to an interesting question could Austria fight Japan without help from anyone, cause Japan would have unopposed rule of the south pacific water ways.

If Austria couldn't fight off Japan, Japan would be free to start and eat Russia from the other side. This would have been a large front war meaning bigger then the front in western Russia so the Germans would have an easier time. India would have been in the fight at this point so lets say 1/4 of the Russian forces are used to fight off Japan.

So lets simplify this out.

Russia Produced: ~24,000 Tanks and Self-propelled Guns in 42 and 43 (wiki)
Germany & allies not japan: ~10,500 in 42 and 20,000 in 43.

Lets say 1/4 of these numbers are sent off to fight japan and 1/4 of them don't get made cause the lend-lease does not happen. (please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease)

IF the Germans where still fighting the Russians in mid 43 and holding there own then without having to fight D-day, so more troops to the eastern front.  I believe Germans would have pushed harder to get bombers into range of the Urals based factories. With less men and less factories I believe Russia would have lost.   

Hurley
 
Indeed, that 's why the russians restructured they army at the time, they could not continue to waste bodies to the meat grinder and get the industry output they were after. But it is worthy to notice too that in'43 the german army was running low on manpower and most of the ostrfont division were understrenght, gone from 4 to 3 batallions.
Japan got their bum kicked royaly by the russians in the thirtees and didn t really have any armored might/tactics to make any decisive encroachments at any reasonable speed in the east.Remember that the japanese soldier did most of it's travels(on the continent that is) on foot.I'll give them credit for that ...
come down for a walk...Japan -India...should get you in a good shape...build up that stamina...
Only the fool wishes to go into battle to beat someone for the satisfaction of beating someone.